Canada v Morocco predictions: Atlas Lions on course to reach last-16

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Canada v Morocco in Group F of World Cup 2022 in Qatar on Thursday

Where to watch

BBC2, 3pm Thursday

Best bet

Morocco & under 3.5 goals
1pt 9-5 Betfair, Paddy Power

Victory over Belgium has handed Morocco a great chance to make the last 16 and they should grasp that chance against Canada, who have already been eliminated. The North Africans are unlikely to be too proactive if they establish a lead as a draw may be enough, so don't expect them to run riot if they take the initiative.

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Match preview

Both of these teams should be encouraged by their performances against Belgium but the key difference is that Morocco's ended in a victory and they can claim another three points to take them into the last 16.

Canada have earned plenty of admiration for their positive approach in their opening two games but they remain pointless and it is difficult to see them making much of an impression against the frugal North Africans.

Morocco's success has been a bit of a surprise as manager Walid Regragui took charge of just two games before taking the team to Qatar, but player fallouts have been quelled and they remain a team who are difficult to beat, as clean sheets against Croatia and Belgium demonstrate.

A draw would probably be enough to progress to the knockout stage for just the second time, after goals from Romain Saiss and Zakaria Aboukhlal gave them just their third win in 18 World Cup finals matches against Roberto Martinez's side.

Canada's defending in their second game - a 4-1 defeat to Croatia - should give Morocco plenty of encouragement and once they get in front, it would be a surprise if their defence was penetrated.

Alphonso Davies scored a fine headed goal in the opening minutes of Canada's loss to Croatia but they offered little else while also paying for missed opportunities in a 1-0 defeat to the Belgians, a match in which they deserved to get something.

It seems unlikely that their English coach John Herdman will ring the changes and he has talked positively about his team going out with a bang.

But saying it and doing it are different matters, especially as striker Jonathan David has failed to replicate the form he has displayed this season with Lille and it is a big task to pick themselves up from the humbling they suffered in their last game.

And they are coming up against a team who have not conceded a goal in their last six matches.

That suggests it may be a low-scoring game, especially if Morocco's efforts become less urgent, but there are concerns about the Canada defence which questions the likelihood of them keeping a clean sheet.

Key stat

Just two of Morocco's last 12 competitive games have featured more than three goals.

Team news

Canada
Veteran midfielder Atiba Hutchinson is likely to be replaced by Ismael Kone and Junior Hoilett may be handed a start.

Morocco
Yassine Bounou is likely to return in goal after being a late withdrawal from the win over Belgium because of illness.

Probable teams

Canada (3-4-3) Borjan; Johnston, Vitoria, Miller; Laryea, Kone, Eustaquio, Davies; Buchanan, Hoilett, David

Morocco (4-3-3) Bounou; Hakimi, Aguerd, Saiss, Mazraoui; Ounahi, Amrabat, Amallah; Ziyech, En-Nesyri, Boufal

Inside info

Canada

Top scorer in probable team Jonathan David
Star player Alphonso Davies
Penalty taker Alphonso Davies/Jonathan David
Assist ace Alphonso Davies
Set-piece aerial threat Steven Vitoria
Card magnet Steven Vitoria

Morocco

Top scorer in probable team Hakim Ziyech
Star player Achraf Hakimi
Penalty taker Sofiane Boufal
Assist ace Achraf Hakimi
Set-piece aerial threat Nayef Aguerd
Card magnet Sofyan Amrabat

Canada v Morocco Bet Builder

Morocco to win
Morocco should build on their fine win over Belgium and leave nothing to chance as they look to secure a last-16 spot.
Under 3.5 goals
The Moroccans could shut up shop if they get into the lead so don't expect there to be a feast of goals.
Steven Vitoria to be shown a card
The veteran Canada defender has been booked in four of his last nine internationals.

Price guide 15-2 with Paddy Power