Argentina's market move makes sense but European teams could raise their levels

South American heavyweights Brazil and Argentina have been the pre-tournament steamers in the World Cup betting but how significant is recent form?

And how much difference does a couple of months make? Quite a bit, according to the betting markets, as Brazil and Argentina have both shortened up significantly since the summer, when the World Cup would traditionally have been held.

How the 2022 World Cup odds have changed

The most significant move has been in favour of Argentina, who were 12-1 immediately after the group-stage draw was made on April 1 and still available at 11-1 at the start of June, but have halved in price since then.

The Albiceleste are on a 36-game unbeaten streak which includes their triumph at the 2021 Copa America. But that run stood at an impressive 31 games in June, and subsequent wins, however convincing, against Jamaica, Honduras, Estonia and the UAE cannot be of that much consequence.

More significant was Argentina's 3-0 victory over European champions Italy at Wembley, which showcased a system that gives Lionel Messi and their other attacking stars licence to express themselves without leaving them exposed at the back. They outshot the Italians 17-7, and have also kept clean sheets against Uruguay, Brazil and Colombia in the last 12 months.

Perhaps the other significant piece of new information is the form of Messi himself.

A summer World Cup would have come at the end of one of his least productive seasons – 11 goals in 34 appearances for PSG – but he has already eclipsed that this term with 12 goals and 14 assists in 19 games. Knowing that one of the greatest players in history is back to something like his best is a premium that many Argentina backers are seemingly happy to pay.

Their price looks like a correction of a stagnant market that then turned into a bandwagon once their recent form came under the spotlight. Rivals Brazil also boast an immensely talented squad and have beaten South Korea, Japan, Ghana and Tunisia by a 14-3 aggregate since June.

If the South American sides have few question marks about their 2022 form, the same cannot be said of most of their major European rivals, whose World Cup odds have drifted in response to Brazil and Argentina shortening.

It is, though, fair to question whether the form lines from the most recent Nations League are worth quite as much as usual.

Four Nations League games were tagged onto the end of the 2021-22 club season, causing it to run to mid-June, and there were two further rounds of fixtures shoehorned into September's schedule.

The last couple of seasons have been compacted due to the unique demands of Covid and of accommodating a winter World Cup and if something had to give for many top players, perhaps it was the Nations League.

Spain and Portugal took points off each other as well as both losing to Switzerland. France and Germany registered only one win from six matches, and England none. With the exception of Portugal, who required a playoff to reach the World Cup, they all breezed through qualifying, so perhaps they can raise their performance levels with the greatest prize on the line.

France's hopes have also been dented by injuries to midfielders N'Golo Kante and Paul Pogba but the biggest drifter has been England, who were joint-second favourites when the draw was made in April.

Manager Gareth Southgate's pragmatic style of play means England generally live or die on fine margins. Those margins fell in their favour during runs to the 2018 World Cup semi-finals and the final of Euro 2020, boosted by kind draws and home advantage at the Euros.

But the stock of Southgate and his team has fallen after a Nations League campaign in which they failed to score from open play in their first five matches. According to Opta, though, England had 62 shots worth 5.4 non-penalty expected goals so, while the football was uninspiring, the narrative may have been slightly less negative had just one or two of those shots gone in.

The problem is that a lot of those chances came only after England had gone behind, prompting suggestions that Southgate has retreated too far into his shell.

Big chances are not being created regularly enough and it is fair for fans to question why, after six years under the same manager, England are still reliant on a set-piece or an occasional Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling combination – wells which have run drier of late.

The starting line-ups Southgate picked in the Nations League may have just been down to who was fit, but there is a worry that he is getting caught between two stools.

England have the personnel to play a back four and try to control games but if Southgate is set on a more passive 3-4-3 then he should at least commit to being the best version of that formation, teaming up Kane with two pacy wide forwards. That is how the striker tends to operate at Tottenham but England's manager seems to feel obliged to get Phil Foden, who is at his best in a possession-oriented team such as Manchester City, into the 11.

Ultimately, as ever with England, things are never quite as good or as bad as people would have you believe.

However, substitutions are another area in which Southgate should be more proactive. This World Cup is not at the end of the club season but players have still played a lot of minutes in a condensed domestic calendar and intensity levels appeared to wane in recent weeks. Effective use of the squad, particularly given the heat in Qatar – another possible edge for the South Americans – will be a major factor at the tournament.

According to the anticipated line-ups in the Racing Post's World Cup guide, England and Germany's projected starters have the most minutes in their legs.

Kane, along with England teammates Jude Bellingham and Eric Dier, have played more than 2,000 minutes and no other team's projected outfield starters contains more than one player who has exceeded that mark.

Workloads of the leading contenders

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