Argentina v Croatia predictions: Time may be up for the Chequered Ones

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Argentina v Croatia in the World Cup semi-finals on Tuesday.

Where to watch

ITV1, 7pm Tuesday

Argentina v Croatia World Cup match predictions

Argentina
1pt 5-6 general

Argentina have responded impressively to their 2-1 loss to Saudi Arabia and can advance to their fifth World Cup final at the expense of Croatia, who may struggle to overcome a second South American giant in five days.

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Match preview

There has been no shortage of upsets at the 2022 World Cup but order can be restored by Argentina, who look reliable odds-on favourites to defeat Croatia in Tuesday's first semi-final at the Lusail Iconic Stadium.

Argentina were on the wrong end of arguably the biggest shock of the competition when losing 2-1 to Saudi Arabia in their opening game at this venue.

However, Lionel Scaloni's team have rediscovered their composure after that setback to deservedly earn a place in the last four.

The Albiceleste went into their second group games against Mexico knowing defeat would end their World Cup hopes. And they looked nervy for the opening hour until a superb Lionel Messi strike changed the course of the game.

If Argentina do go on to claim a third world title on Sunday, they may well look back on that intervention from their talisman as the turning point of their entire tournament.

Argentina's performance levels have risen significantly since that magical Messi moment and they were worthy winners against Netherlands on Friday, even if they did require penalties to progress.

Scaloni's side will keen to avoid going the distance against Croatia, who have won all four of their World Cup penalty shootouts, including spot-kick successes over Japan (3-1) and Brazil (4-2) in Qatar.

The Croats will run out in their third World Cup semi-final on Tuesday night, which is an astonishing achievement for a nation of fewer than four million people.

Croatia were 50-1 to lift the trophy before the tournament began despite reaching the final in Russia four years ago, but they have performed way above expectations. But anybody who watched their bloody-minded performance against Brazil would realise they are not going to settle for a semi-final spot.

Croatia have had to do things differently to 2018 when they had a high-quality centre-forward in Mario Mandzukic and were a more attack-minded side.

They have relied more on their powers of resistance in Qatar and leaned heavily on the superb performances of Leipzig centre-back Josko Gvardiol, one of the outstanding defenders in the tournament, and goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic, hero of both of their shootout successes.

Croatia's midfield three – Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic and Mateo Kovacic – have also impressed and were key to them limiting the Brazilian threat for large parts of Friday's quarter-final.

Modric's performance against Brazil was an incredible effort for a player who turned 37 in September. However, it would be asking a lot for the Real Madrid man to be as influential just four days later.

The Croatian midfield has had to get through a mountain of work and it would be entirely understandable if their energy levels dropped a fraction.

Argentina's challenge is to play at a tempo which imposes maximum strain on their weary opponents.

At some point spaces are likely to open up and there is no better man to take advantage than Messi.

The 35-year-old has looked like a man on a mission since his goal against Mexico and can keep the fairytale of a World Cup win in his final global tournament alive.

Key stat

Argentina have won 11 of 14 matches in 2022.

Team news

Argentina
Papu Gomez (ankle) is a doubt but Angel di Maria (quad) came off the bench against the Netherlands and is pushing to start. Gonzalo Montiel and Marcos Acuna are suspended.

Croatia
Josip Stanisic (muscle strain) did not feature against Brazil but Borna Sosa started after illness and is likely to keep his place at left-back.

Probable teams

Argentina (4-3-3) E Martinez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister; Di Maria, Messi, Alvarez.

Croatia (4-3-3) Livakovic; Juranovic; Lovren, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic; Pasalic, Kramaric, Perisic.

Inside info

Argentina

Top scorer in probable team Lionel Messi
Star player Lionel Messi
Penalty taker Lionel Messi
Assist ace Lionel Messi
Set-piece aerial threat Cristian Romero
Card magnet Nicolas Otamendi

Croatia

Top scorer in probable team Ivan Perisic
Star player Luka Modric
Penalty taker Luka Modric
Assist ace Ivan Perisic
Set-piece aerial threat Dejan Lovren
Card magnet Marcelo Brozovic

Argentina v Croatia Bet Builder

Argentina to win Argentina are finishing the tournament much stronger than they started it and can see off gritty Croatia, who may not have much left in the tank

Under 2.5 goals Four of Croatia's five matches have generated fewer than three goals and another low-scoring 90 minutes seems likely

Croatia to receive the most cards Argentina received eight bookings in their ill-tempered quarter-final against the Netherlands but have showed better discipline in the other games and can keep their cool more than Croatia, who may be forced into committing several tactical fouls

Price guide 11-2