Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

When to bet

Sunderland v Bristol City
3pm Saturday

Best bet

Bristol City 0 Asian handicap cards
1pt 1.8 bet365

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Kevin Pullein's best bet

Back Bristol City to receive most cards in their Championship game at Sunderland. Bet365 quote decimal odds of 1.8, equivalent to the fractional price of 4-5, about Bristol City 0 Asian handicap cards.

Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If Bristol City’s total is higher the bet will win, if both totals are the same stakes will be returned, and if Sunderland’s total is higher the bet will lose.

Sunderland have received more cards than Bristol City this season – 67 yellows and three reds against 61 yellows and two reds.

Today the Black Cats are at home and the Robins away. The venue makes a difference. However, even if we compare figures from Sunderland at home and Bristol City away we find there is little difference between them.

After 31 games Sunderland have 48 points and Bristol City 40. Sunderland are fifth, in the playoff places, and Bristol City 16th. Normally the team with better results will have received fewer cards – because most cards are shown for mistimed tackles, and teams who get better results tend to have had less defending to do.

However, over short periods there can be a lot of randomness in card counts. If we look over longer periods at the records of Sunderland and Bristol City, or the whole of the long managerial careers of Tony Mowbray and Nigel Pearson, we do not find anything unusual in the numbers of cards. It is entirely possible there will not be in future.

With better results and home advantage the Black Cats understandably are favourites to score most goals. Prices in the score-related markets seem about right to me. In Championship games with similar score expectations fair decimal odds about the away team 0 Asian handicap cards would normally be shorter than 1.8. It is possible they should be today.

Thought for the week

Well done, Portugal. It is a country that has consistently punched above its weight in the Champions League. It does not often get the credit it deserves.

This season there are two Portuguese clubs in the round of 16 – Benfica, who won 2-0 at Club Bruges in their first leg on Wednesday, and Porto, who will play at Inter in their first leg next Wednesday.

At least one Portuguese club have appeared in the round of 16 in 17 of the last 20 seasons. Altogether Portuguese clubs have reached this stage 21 times.

On that measurement Portugal is the sixth most successful country after England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France. The first five are the so-called Big Five. They are also the richest five. According to Uefa figures, those countries pay the highest average top-division wages, and in about the same order.

Portugal, on those lists, is not sixth. It comes below Russia and Turkey, and not far above the Netherlands. Typically Portugal is eighth.

Russia is now banned from Uefa competitions but its clubs only rarely progressed beyond the group stage. The Portuguese league, admittedly, is dominated by a small number of clubs who can afford a lot higher wages than most of the rest. But so are the Turkish and Dutch leagues. In 20 seasons Turkish clubs have reached the round of 16 only four times and Dutch clubs only seven times.

On Uefa lists of the wages paid by the sort of clubs from each country who qualify for the Champions League, Portugal also typically ranks eighth.

Players from outside Europe hope a move to Portugal will be a stepping stone for a move to England, Spain, Italy, Germany or France. It is a particularly popular stopover for players from South America because of its climate and a language that is either the same or similar. Portuguese-born players can be pretty good too. The result is over-achieving top clubs.

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