Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

When to bet

Bayern Munich v Augsburg
2.30pm Saturday

Best bet

Under 3.5 Asian total cards
1pt 2.05 bet365

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Kevin Pullein's best bet

Back under 3.5 Asian total cards in Saturday's Bundesliga game between Bayern Munich and Augsburg.

Bet365 offer decimal odds of 2.05, equivalent to the fractional price of 21-20. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If the total is lower than 3.5 the bet will win, if it is higher the bet will lose.

In Bayern home games decimal odds about fewer than 3.5 cards would normally be a lot shorter than 2.05. Bayern v Augsburg is a Bavarian derby. In those games, too, fewer than 3.5 cards has obliged much more often than these odds suggest.

In Saturday's game, however, there is a greater risk of a high makeup.

Augsburg games this season have featured an unusually high number of cards. There were more than 3.5 in their home game against Bayern, and in eight of their 11 away games. So the danger of a large total is worse than it was in previous meetings between Augsburg and Bayern in Munich. However, it is possible that decimal odds of 2.05 still underestimate the chance of fewer than 3.5 cards.

Florian Badstubner will be refereeing his 33rd Bundesliga game in his third season. There is nothing out of the ordinary in his card-issuing record. Nor is there in Bayern games. There is in Augsburg games. That is the biggest threat to the outcome, but at the odds the bet seems to represent value for money.

Thought for the week

Last week I heard more than one person say that Jude Bellingham should leave Dortmund in the summer and join Manchester United instead of Liverpool. Their argument was that United have a better manager and better existing players. United are heading up, Liverpool are on the way down. Bellingham is more likely to win medals next season with United than Liverpool.

The argument might be right. I have not heard anyone make it since last Sunday when Liverpool beat United 7-0. My interest, though, is not in reaction to one game but in the significance of one season. With 13 Premier League games to go, United have seven more points than Liverpool. They will probably finish higher. But what would that foretell for next season?

Suppose that in the summer a player has the choice of two top clubs and both offer him the same wages. How should he make his choice to give himself the best chance of feeling next season that he made the right choice?

He could toss a coin. There would be a 50 per cent chance that next season he felt he was in the right place. He could pick the team that finish highest this season. I studied the fortunes of the current Premier League Big Six in ten pairs of seasons – from 2011-12 and 2012-13 to 2020-21 and 2021-22. How often did the team that finished higher one season also finish higher the next season? Just over 60 per cent of the time. That is an improvement on tossing a coin, but not much.

I believe the best way for our player to make his choice would be to ignore completely the manager and existing players, as well as results this season, and examine instead the fundamentals of the club. How much money do they have coming in, how much will they spend on developing the squad?

By that reckoning, in my opinion, the most successful English clubs over the next few seasons are likely to be Newcastle and Manchester City – plus Manchester United if they are bought by extremely wealthy owners. City have been charged with breaking Premier League financial fair play rules, and if they are found guilty and punished heavily their owners could sell up. Otherwise, for me, it will be Newcastle, City – and potentially United.

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