Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

When to bet

Rotherham v Cardiff
3pm Saturday

Best bet

Under 4.5 Asian total cards
1pt 1.85 bet365

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Kevin Pullein's best bet

Back under 4.5 Asian total cards in the Championship game between Rotherham and Cardiff. Bet365 quote decimal odds of 1.85, equivalent to the fractional price of 17-20. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If the total is four or lower the bet will win, if it is five or higher the bet will lose.

There have been more cards per game in the Championship this season than last season – just over four, up from just under four. Even so, nearly 60 per cent of games have featured fewer than 4.5 cards. Decimal odds of 1.85 imply a 54 per cent chance of a payout.

The chance of a low makeup at the New York Stadium is smaller than it would be in most Championship games, for a couple of reasons.

First, the play may be close. Odds in result-related markets imply both teams have a similar chance of collecting three points. The more evenly balanced a contest is likely to be the more serious the risk of a high card count becomes.

Second, Rotherham and Cardiff will start the game in 20th and 21st places, just above the relegation line. They are five and four points ahead of 22nd place, but those are not thick cushions with nine games to go. There is more still at stake for them than for some teams.

Cardiff games have featured a high number of cards an above average number of times, but not primarily because of Cardiff, and not in the two months since Sabri Lamouchi became manager.

Rotherham games did not produce high card makeups unusually often, before or after Matt Taylor became their manager.

Oliver Langford is an experienced referee who has officiated at more than 450 EFL games spread over 15 seasons. There were some recent seasons in which he showed more cards than most colleagues, but not this season, and not across his whole career.  

So there are some neutral signals and some pointing in unwanted directions. Even so, it is still possible that decimal odds for under 4.5 cards should be shorter than 1.85.

Thought for the week

How interesting. Fifa are going to keep four-team groups for the next World Cup. They were going to change to three-team groups. Now they are not. They say they are sticking with four-team groups because at the last World Cup these were exciting.

I suspect the real reason is different. What interests me, though, is the reason given. Do Fifa think this is the explanation that will go down best with the football public? If they do, they are right. But they should not be.

There have been four-team groups at World Cups for a long time. Fifa say the last group stage was different from some previous ones. So why should the next one be the same as the last one? Why should it not be different again?

We are misled by this sort of argument time after time. What happened in period B was different from what happened in period A, so, the argument goes, what happens in period C will be the same as what happened in period B. Why? Logically, there are stronger grounds for predicting another change than a first repetition.

Just so you know, I am not arguing against four-team groups. I prefer them. I am glad we will still have them at the next World Cup. I am talking about them only because of the reason given for keeping them. That is what I find interesting.

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