Kevin Pullein predictions

When to bet

Middlesbrough v Watford
3pm Saturday

Best bet

Watford 0 Asian handicap cards
1pt 1.95 bet365

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Kevin Pullein's best bet

Back Watford to receive most cards in their Championship game at Middlesbrough. Bet365 offer decimal odds of 1.95, equivalent to the fractional price of 19-20, about Watford 0 Asian handicap cards.

Each yellow will count as one card, each red as two cards. If Watford’s total is highest the bet will win, if both totals are the same stakes will be returned and if Middlesbrough’s total is highest the bet will lose.

Middlesbrough v Watford is an important game in the Championship. Both have improved under new managers – Michael Carrick at Boro, Slaven Bilic for the Hornets. Both are now in the playoff places. Boro would overtake Watford should they win on Saturday.

Carrick’s Boro have done exceptionally well in all sorts of markets – but not cards. In the Championship they received most cards in six games, fewest in four games and the same number as their opponents in two games.

That is unusual for a team who have been winning most of the time. It could continue, and if it does the bet will not have represented value for money. However, there is a reasonable possibility that this trend is only temporary, perhaps a short-term phenomenon in a period of transition, and that in future Middlesbrough will receive most cards less often. Over a small number of games there can be a lot of random variation in card counts.

Odds in the result-related markets imply a 49 per cent chance of a Middlesbrough win, a 28 per cent chance of a draw and a 23 per cent chance of a Watford win. Usually in a Championship game with similar result expectations fair decimal odds about the away team 0 Asian handicap cards would be shorter than 1.95. It is possible that they would be today, even if not by as much as on some other days.

Thought for the week

Looking back at our pre-season pullout The Big Kick-Off I see that the top six in the betting for the FA Cup then were the Big Six. They were also the first six in the betting for the EFL Cup. And the Premier League.

The Big Six in alphabetical order are Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham. They are usually ante-post favourites in some order for every major English honour every season.

They also fill six of the first ten places in the most recent Deloitte Football Money League. It ranked clubs by revenue last season. City were first, Liverpool third, United fourth, Chelsea eighth, Tottenham ninth, Arsenal tenth.

The only non-English clubs in the top ten were Real Madrid (second), Paris Saint-Germain (fifth), Bayern Munich (sixth) and Barcelona (seventh). You can understand why they and other clubs in Spain, Germany and France are concerned about the current state of affairs. Italy, too. The highest-ranked Serie A club were Juventus in 11th.

Generally speaking, higher revenue means more money to spend on players, which means a better team, which means superior results.

Newcastle rose from 29th to 20th. Next season they will be higher and soon they will figure prominently in the top ten. Before this season they were seventh in the betting for the Premier League, FA Cup and EFL Cup. The Big six is on its way to becoming a Big Seven.

Sixteen out of 20 Premier League clubs ranked in the top 30 of the Money League.

What does all this mean for the most prestigious competition of them all, the Champions League?

There is a bit of chicken and egg in that question. Winning the Champions League increases revenue, which can lift a club in the Money League. Even so, the stats are dramatic. Deloitte have compiled a Money League for 26 seasons. In 25 of them the Champions League was won by a team in the top ten of the Money League. In 17 it was won by a team in the top three of the Money League.

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