Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

When to bet

Preston v Bristol City
3pm Saturday

Best bet

Bristol City 0 Asian handicap cards
1pt 4-5 bet365

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Kevin Pullein's best bet

Back Bristol City to receive most cards in their Championship game at Preston. Bet365 offer decimal odds of 1.8, equivalent to the fractional price of 4-5, about Bristol City 0 Asian handicap cards.

Each yellow will count as one card, each red as two cards. If Bristol City’s total is highest the bet will win, if both totals are the same stakes will be returned, and if Preston’s total is highest the bet will lose.

The reason for suggesting this bet might represent value for money is not that Bristol City have dirty players or that Preston have clean players. As I may have said before, most cards are shown for well-intentioned but mistimed attempts to stop an opposition attack. So the cards a team receive tend to be related to the amount of defending they have to do, and the cards received by Bristol City and Preston have been fairly standard for the amount of defending they have had to do.

The reason for thinking this bet might represent value for money is simply that in Championship games where the balance of play is similar to what it seems reasonable to anticipate at Deepdale on Saturday fair decimal odds about the away team 0 Asian handicap cards would normally be shorter than 1.8.

After 28 games Preston have 40 points and Bristol City 33 points. There may not be a great difference between them in ability. Odds in the result-related markets imply a 38 per cent chance of a home win, a 30 per cent chance of a draw and a 32 per cent chance of an away win. I think those proportions are about right. And in Championship games with similar result expectations fair decimal odds about the away team 0 Asian handicap would normally be shorter than 1.8.

Thought for the week

Sean Dyche supervises his first game as Everton manager at home to Arsenal. It will be second from bottom in the Premier League – off the floor only on goal difference – against the leaders.

Everyone seems to agree that Everton have been underperforming. By how much, and since when?

Other football writers usually refer to Everton’s transfer spending. I prefer to focus on their wage bill.

Transfer fees, in my opinion, can be an unreliable guide to how good players should be. The fee paid by the buying club varies with the length of the player’s contract with the selling club. And, in any case, reported transfer fees can be hearsay, or worse.

Wage bills should be related to others in the same competition.

Farhad Moshiri started buying Everton early in 2016. Before then Everton’s wage bill, season after season, had represented four per cent of the Premier League total. It took another year or so for Moshiri’s spending on players to take off. Then Everton’s payroll rose to five per cent of the Premier League total.

Teams with wage bills of that size average 57 points, and teams with 57 points finish on average in seventh place. In the four seasons from 2017-18 to 2020-21 Everton’s points totals were 49, 54, 49 and 59. They finished 8th, 8th, 12th and 10th. Overall they underachieved, slightly.

Only since the start of last season have results fallen away disturbingly. Last season Everton finished 16th with 39 points. After 20 games this season, they are 19th with 15 points. There are 18 games to go. What total might Everton reach?

Let us turn away now from what Everton are paying for to what the players they have got have delivered. Teams with 15 points after 20 games typically finish with 36 points. Obviously, that is an average from a range of outcomes. With 36 points it is touch and go whether a team stay up or go down.

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