Kevin Pullein predictions

Where to watch

Coventry v Sunderland
Sky Sports Football, 12.30pm Saturday

Best bet

Coventry 0 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.925 bet365

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Kevin Pullein's best bet

Only once in their last five home games have Coventry taken most corners. Not at all in their last five away games have Sunderland taken the fewest corners.

For a couple of months Coventry have done badly in corners handicap markets and Sunderland have done well. But over a short period of time there can be a lot of randomness in football statistics, especially those for the incidentals of games.

And it is possible that on Saturday there is value for money in backing Coventry to take most corners in their televised Championship game against Sunderland.

Back Coventry 0 Asian handicap corners with bet365 at decimal odds of 1.925, equivalent to the fractional price of 37-40. If Coventry take most corners the bet will win, if both teams take the same number stakes will be returned, and if Sunderland take most corners the bet will lose.

Coventry in other home games have taken most corners only as often as they have taken fewest corners. Overall, home and away, they have performed poorly for their backers in corners handicap markets all season. For them this has been going on for more than a couple of months

Still, over an extended length of time, there is nearly always a relationship between corners for and against and goals scored and conceded. If the relationship gets broken in the short term it tends to be restored in the long run.

Mark Robins has managed Coventry for almost six years. Over the whole of that period, during which they have played in three divisions, the number of corners taken and defended has been in line with the number of goals scored and conceded. There were times when they moved out of sync, one way or the other, but so far they have always come back together again.

Coventry are 11th in the Championship and Sunderland eighth. Coventry have 45 points, four fewer than Sunderland but with a game in hand. With home-field advantage, Coventry are regarded in result-related markets as more likely to score most goals. Odds imply a 42 per cent chance of a Coventry win, a 29 per cent chance of a draw and a 29 per cent chance of a Sunderland win.

In Championship games with similar result expectations fair odds about the home team 0 Asian handicap corners would normally be shorter than 1.925. It is possible they would be on Saturday, despite the recent corner stats of Coventry and Sunderland.

Thought for the week

After a quarter of an hour of Liverpool v Real Madrid I thought the winners might score five. They did. But I did not think the winners would be Madrid.

Liverpool led 2-0 and looked as though they could score more. Then Madrid scored five times without reply.

What happens in one part of a match can be different from another. And this match can differ from the next. Even though I have been watching football for a long time I have to keep reminding myself.

Liverpool seemed to be heading back toward their best in 2-0 Premier League wins over Everton and Newcastle. The performance against Everton was better than the performance against Newcastle, but both games were won, and with clean sheets.

And for 15 minutes in the Champions League Liverpool cut through Madrid, time and time again. Then everything changed.

I missed Everton’s first game under new manager Sean Dyche, a 1-0 win over Arsenal. Many who saw it were impressed. They thought Everton could get something from the Merseyside derby against Liverpool, who had just lost badly to Wolves. In the event, Liverpool beat Everton easily.

Now those who cared were concerned. Could Dyche still keep Everton in the Premier League? Then Everton beat Leeds and moved above them and out of the relegation zone. What happens next can be different from what happened before.

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