Will need-to-win teams get what they want on the last weekend of the EFL season?

There are fates still to be revealed in each division of the EFL. The Championship and League Two seasons finish on Saturday, the League One season finishes on Sunday.

Wycombe almost certainly – but not absolutely certainly – will be relegated from the Championship with two out of three from Sheffield Wednesday, Rotherham and Derby. Sheffield Wednesday play at Derby.

One of the playoff places in League One is still up for grabs – Portsmouth, Oxford and Charlton are squabbling over it.

Cambridge, Bolton and Morecambe are disputing two remaining automatic promotion places in League Two. Whoever misses out will go into the playoffs along with three out of five from Newport, Tranmere, Forest Green, Exeter and Salford.

There will be tension, turning to joy in some places, despair in others. There could be drama. On the last day of a season strange things do happen – not all of the time but more often than results in previous weeks would have led us to suppose.

EFL teams who need to win their last game – to gain automatic promotion, qualify for the playoffs or avoid relegation – have won about 20 per cent more often than they did in earlier games.

On this point I have changed my mind over the years as I have gathered more data. I followed John Maynard Keynes’s advice. He said: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” Keynes was a successful investor as well as a famous economist, so his words are worth listening to.

The all-important question, however, remains: whether need-to-win teams are as much more likely to win as the odds suggest.

I have kept detailed records of the final days of the last 19 EFL seasons – those from 2001-02 to 2019-20. Last season I left out League One and League Two because teams did not play all of their scheduled games, and when they played for the last time they did not know it was going to be the last time.

Before each of the others I noted teams who still had something to play for – those who needed a draw or a win to guarantee or give themselves a chance of automatic promotion, a playoff place or safety from relegation.

In most games neither team had anything to play for. In some games both teams had everything to play for. All of those games were similar in that both teams had the same motivation. Either it was equally high or equally low. We can say that the teams’ motivations were symmetrical.

What I want to do here is look at the games in which one team had something to play for and the other had nothing to play – games in which motivations were asymmetrical. There were 189 of them.

Teams who needed to win their last game for automatic promotion or a playoff place won 64 per cent of the time. Teams who needed to win their last game to escape relegation won 49 per cent of the time.

Then I looked at the results those teams had achieved in their previous 45 games. And this is what I found. Teams who needed to win their last game for automatic promotion or a playoff place had earlier in the season won 46 per cent of the time. And teams who needed to win their last game to evade relegation had earlier in the season won 26 per cent of the time.

So on the last day promotion-chasing teams won 18 per cent more often and relegation-fleeing teams won 23 per cent more often.

There were probably two things going on. Teams who needed to win managed to raise their performance level. Their opponents who had nothing to play for performed at a lower level than they had before. The combination of those two changes produced results of which there had been no hint in previous performances.

Teams who needed to draw their last game did so more often than in previous games. There was not much difference between teams aspiring to automatic promotion or the playoffs and teams trying to avoid relegation. For all such teams the draw-rate on the last day was much higher than on other days or in EFL games generally.

Teams chasing promotion in one form or another who needed to draw their last game did so 36 per cent of the time. They had drawn 29 per cent of earlier games. Teams fleeing relegation who needed to draw their last game did so 39 per cent of the time. They had drawn 28 per cent of earlier games. Over the whole 19 seasons the draw-rate in all EFL games was 27 per cent.

Of the teams who will still believe this season could end well, and who face opponents with nothing to play for, Newport and Tranmere need only a draw – Cambridge as well in all likelihood – but Rotherham, Portsmouth, Oxford, Charlton, Bolton, Morecambe, Forest Green, Exeter and Salford must all go for a win.

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport