Squad investment is a must but Newcastle must find the right man to lead the way

Analysing the key areas of improvement and crunching the numbers as Newcastle embark on a new era.

Squad improvements

Whenever a team becomes newly flush with money, as Newcastle have since their Saudi-backed takeover last week, the rumour mill winds into full gear.

The Magpies have been linked with everyone from Timo Werner to Erling Haaland but with a struggling squad, the new owners must identify which areas need to be strengthened immediately.

The manager is the obvious place to start and a new boss is almost a given after any takeover of this size, while Steve Bruce is already unpopular with fans.

When examining the potential candidates, it’s worth remembering the task at hand. Newcastle are 19th in the Premier League and won’t be able to add to their playing squad until January 1. Any overhaul of the team is likely to take time to bear fruit.

Rumours linking the likes of Antonio Conte to the position seem overblown given the long-term nature of the project. The Italian coach’s stock is probably the highest of any out-of-work coach in world football and he may prefer to wait for a more imminently successful club to come calling.

A manager such as Lucien Favre may fit the bill better. The Swiss coach took Borussia Monchengladbach from the bottom of the Bundesliga to consistent European challengers in his five years with the club.

Favre’s attack-minded football and track record for nurturing young players would make him a candidate suited to the philosophy the new owners are likely to want to instil.

On the playing side, the goalkeeping department is probably the least of the new owners’ immediate concerns. Martin Dubravka has been a more than able number one since his arrival in 2018 and will resume that role when he returns from injury.

The consortium’s number one priority will surely be to strengthen their defence in January. Only Norwich City have conceded more than the Magpies’ 13.3 expected goals this season. Newcastle also rank alongside the promoted club as the leakiest defence with 16 shipped in seven games.

James Tarkowski has emerged as a player that the club may be interested in and he would help shore up the backline. Upgrades at left and right-back may also be sought given that converted wingers Jacob Murphy and Matt Ritchie have spent significant time there under Bruce.

The midfield will need bolstering as Newcastle often struggle to contain the opposition in the middle of the park and lack a central midfielder who can dictate the tempo of a game.

Miguel Almiron, Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson are the primary attacking outlets in the side and may be sufficient to keep the side up if the defence is strengthened. However, the new owners may feel the need for a headline signing and that is more likely to come in forward areas.

Just as when Manchester City were taken over, this is a step into the unknown for Newcastle and their fans. The signings and the new manager are yet to be established but one thing is for certain, the Toon Army are witnessing a new dawn at their club.

Steve Bruce v Rafa Benitez

During Steve Bruce’s fractious reign as Newcastle manager he has become increasingly unpopular with the fanbase who have often longed for the return of his predecessor Rafa Benitez. But is their criticism of the local coach misplaced?

The graph below plots each Premier League team on both their expected goal difference for the season according to fbref.com and their squads’ value according to transfermarkt.co.uk. Anything above or near the blue line would be considered a successful campaign for a Newcastle side under Mike Ashley.

Newcastle's xG versus squad value compared to other teams

When analysing the data a few things become clear. One is how well Benitez managed to get his newly promoted side to perform in the 2017-18 season. With the 15th-most valuable squad in the Premier League, the Spaniard’s side finished tenth on both expected goal difference and in the league table.

In the following season Benitez’s Newcastle fell away from that slightly, but the 13th most valuable squad finishing 13th is hardly newsworthy.

The data from Steve Bruce’s side the season after paints a fairly damning portrait of the team and its manager. Despite moving up to 11th on squad value, the Magpies ranked 19th on expected goal difference, indicating that they papered over the cracks to finish where they did.

That story has been maintained throughout the rest of Bruce’s reign, as Newcastle’s expected-goal rankings have lagged behind their squad value.

This season may have been the year that the underlying numbers caught up with the manager, as their league position, expected-goals performance and squad value all point to a relegation battle.

However, on the eve of what will be Bruce’s game number 1,000 as a manager, he may have the fate of the Magpies taken out of his hands by their new ownership.

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