Safety from Premier League relegation is a long way off – in more than one sense

How many points will be needed to stay in the Premier League? Probably fewer than in some seasons gone by – but perhaps not that many fewer than in most recent seasons.

On Friday Watford play Norwich. The team currently in 17th place will play the team currently in 18th place. In the Premier League those positions are hugely significant. Seventeenth is above the relegation line, 18th is below the relegation line. At the end of a season, being in one rather than the other has enormous implications.

What will be the points totals of the teams who finish in those places this season?

Traditionally, managers of non-elite Premier League clubs set their players a target of 40 points. With 40 points, they would say, we are highly unlikely to be relegated. And they were right.

The Premier League was reduced to its present number of teams and games for the 1995-96 season. Sunderland were relegated with 40 points in 1996-97, Bolton were relegated with 40 points in 1997-98. West Ham were relegated with 42 points in 2002-03. Since then no team has gone down with more than 39 points.

Altogether in the 26 seasons from 1995-96 to 2020-21 there were 13 teams who finished with 40 points. Two were relegated. There were 38 teams who finished with 41 or 42 points. One was relegated.

In practice, in the most recent seasons fewer than 40 points were required to stay up. Consider the ten seasons from 2011-12 to 2020-21. The average number of points gained by the team who finished 18th was 34. In nine of those ten seasons the total was between 33 and 37. The exception was last season when Fulham finished 18th with 28 points.

A team can stay up on goal difference, even goals scored. For simplicity’s sake, let us say that to avoid relegation a team need one point more than whoever finishes 18th. The average number of points gained by the team who finished 18th in the last ten seasons was 34. The average number of points needed to stay up, let us say, was 35.

This season is the total likely to be lower, the same or higher? Lower – but maybe not by much.

Because of Covid cancellations teams have played different numbers of games. In fact, none of the current bottom four have played the same number of matches. Watford are 17th, Norwich 18th, Newcastle 19th, Burnley 20th. Watford have played 19 games, Norwich 21, Newcastle 20 and Burnley 17. Watford have 14 points, Norwich 13, Newcastle 12 and Burnley 11.

To get round this complication I considered each team independently, searched for others in previous seasons with the same number of points after the same number of games and calculated the average of the totals they reached. Perhaps surprisingly, this suggested that whoever finishes 18th this season might reach 34 points. Again, 35 would be needed to stay up.

But not every team who find themselves in a given predicament will have identical prospects. Some may have under-achieved, others may have over-achieved. Afterwards their trajectories could diverge.

Ideally we should evaluate each team on their own merits, in so far as we are able to establish those. The way I try to do this is with my computerised ratings – the inputs include estimates of what a team could reasonably be expected to achieve as well as facts about what they have achieved. I ran my ratings to project end-of-season points totals. They anticipate Norwich finishing with 27 points, Newcastle 32, Burnley and Watford 33 – and everyone else more.

I am not saying those are the only possible totals. Just that I think they may be the most likely ones, and that the next most likely ones may be nearby. In other words, a team could stay up this season with fewer than 35 points – but probably not with many fewer.

What is the minimum requirement of title winners?

Two weeks ago I heard a pundit say that if Manchester City won their next two games they would be champions. City then beat Arsenal and Chelsea.

I understand what the pundit meant. City were already in a good position and if they beat a team challenging for the top four then a fellow title challenger they would be in an even better position. They would have a very high chance of becoming champions.

It got me thinking, though.

City now have 56 points from 22 games. Liverpool are in second place with 45 points from 21 games. With how few points could a team become champions?

In the 26 completed Premier League seasons in which teams played 38 games the title winners never finished with fewer than 75 points. It would be possible, though, to come out on top with a lower number. How much lower?

Actually a team with the rule of thumb safe-from-relegation total of 40 points could win the Premier League.

Theoretically a team could become champions with just 38 points. If they drew all their games 1-1 and every other game was drawn 0-0 they would finish top on goals scored – all teams would have 38 points and a goal difference of zero.

In practice such a season is extraordinarily unlikely, but in theory it is possible. As I say, I was just wondering.

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