Ruthless champions Inter hold the aces in Serie A title race despite derby loss

Just one point separates the top three in Serie A after third-placed Milan beat top-of-the-table Inter 2-1 last Saturday and another colossal weekend is in store with four of the top five teams facing off against each other.

Despite their derby defeat, in which Milan's Olivier Giroud scored two late goals, champions Inter, who have a game in hand on their title rivals, remain strong 4-9 favourites to retain the Scudetto.

A glance at their underlying numbers in the accompanying table helps to explain their status at the head of the market. Inter have been outperforming the opposition to the largest extent, posting the best non-penalty expected goal difference (npxGD) per game despite having had a slightly harder schedule so far.

They have won only one of their six games against the current top five (four draws, one loss) so it is vital that second-placed Napoli seize the initiative in Saturday's clash with the champions.

After facing Napoli, Inter will have only one more fixture against the current top five (away at Juventus in April) and Simone Inzaghi's men have steamrolled the rest of the division, picking up 46 points out of a possible 51.

Nine of their final 14 fixtures will be against bottom-half sides, so the chasing pack should not expect the Nerazzurri to drop many more points.

Second-placed Napoli picked up 31 out of 33 possible points at the start of the season and seem to have recovered from a December wobble, winning their last four. Those victories were all against sides placed 13th or lower, however, so they need to prove they can still compete with the big boys in Italy's top flight.

Napoli's title challenge has been built on the best defence in the league. They have conceded just 16 goals in 24 Serie A games, recording a phenomenal 13 clean sheets, and have restricted opponents to less than one xGA in 75 per cent of their games. Inter won 3-2 in their first meeting of the season, though, and Napoli will be desperate to avoid a similar result in Saturday's reverse fixture.

Juventus had a nightmare start to the campaign under returning coach Massimiliano Allegri but have played at championship-winning pace in their last ten games, picking up 24 points.

They have clearly improved and their npxGD per game for those last ten fixtures is 0.67 compared with 0.24 in their first 14 games of 2021-22. However, that figure is still well short of Inter's level as the champions have dispatched sides more comfortably with an npxGD of 1.17 over that period.

Juventus's run has been boosted by them outshooting their xG by 4.1 goals over their last ten matches, having undershot it by 1.0 in those first 14 games.

They have run a bit hot recently but £66m signing Dusan Vlahovic, who scored 13 minutes into his debut against Verona last weekend, adds a new focal point to their forward-line and Juve will be hoping to improve the underlying threat of an attack which ranks only 11th in goals scored and xG created in Serie A.

They are likely too far back to make a serious challenge for the Scudetto but, like Inter, have a favourable run-in, which is bad news for Sunday's opponents Atalanta in the race for a Champions League spot.

Juve travel to Bergamo, where fifth-placed hosts Atalanta have won only three league games this term. They have been excellent on the road but will see their top-four hopes slide away if they can't improve on just the 12th-ranked home record (1.18 points per game).

Milan have taken four points from their recent games with Inter and Juve, and don't have any European distractions after finishing bottom of their Champions League group.

The Rossoneri have not won the title since 2010-11 (when, coincidentally, Inter and Napoli completed the top three). They are 2-5 to claim a home win over Sampdoria on Sunday and will hope to take advantage of a weekend in which their nearest rivals will be taking points off each other.

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