Premier League top scorer odds, predictions & analysis

Predictions & analysis for the race for the Golden Boot in this season's Premier League.

Premier League top scorer analysis

The Premier League returns of Cristiano Ronaldo and Romelu Lukaku have shaken up the top-flight betting markets and the Golden Boot race in particular.

Chelsea forward Lukaku has gone straight to the head of the top scorer market at 10-3 since returning to west London from Serie A champions Inter, while Ronaldo has joined Liverpool's Mo Salah as 5-1 second-favourites.

The Portuguese superstar won the Premier League Golden Boot in his penultimate season with Manchester United - the 2007-08 campaign - before departing for Real Madrid.

And since that move to the Bernabeu, Ronaldo has netted at least 25 league goals in 11 of his last 12 seasons at both Real and Juventus.

Many will be quick to point out that he is also returning to the Premier League after winning the Capocannoniere - Italy's version of the Golden Boot - with a tally of 29 strikes for the Old Lady last season.

That came in a team of stagnating quality under the stewardship of a manager in Andrea Pirlo who was a true great on the field but without any elite experience in the dugout.

Yet Ronaldo still managed to maintain his deadly efficiency and it is hard to see anything but another strong campaign from the five-time Ballon d'Or winner.

The furious pace of the Premier League will be something Ronaldo has not experience domestically for over a decade but that should not matter greatly for a player who has completely transformed from a wonderful winger in his first spell in Manchester to an out-and-out central goal-getter.

Ronaldo's sole focus is scoring goals rather than creating them, highlighted by the fact he averaged 47 touches per 90 minutes for Juventus last season compared to 77 from another of United's summer acquisitions Jadon Sancho at Borussia Dortmund.

The 36-year-old was also well ahead of the rest of United's forwards when it came to average shots per 90 minutes last season, averaging 5.18. Second on the list, which also took into consideration data from the start of this campaign, is Mason Greenwood with only 3.36.

Factor all of this in and the fact he will be surrounded by great creators such as Sancho, Bruno Fernandes and Luke Shaw, and there is a compelling case for backing Ronaldo.

But with a young Mason Greenwood knocking on the door and Edinson Cavani still eager to make an impact at Old Trafford, Ronaldo may not get things all his own way, whereas Lukaku is the undoubted top dog of Chelsea's frontline.

It remains to be seen exactly how Ronaldo's workload will be managed by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer but Blues ace Lukaku will surely start every week when available with Timo Werner yet to replicate his Bundesliga form in the Premier League.

The Belgian is already off the mark in the Premier League this term, netting the opener in a 2-0 win at Arsenal, and at 28 he is in his prime.

Ronaldo beat Lukaku in the Serie A scoring charts last season despite playing fewer matches but circumstances are different this time around and it is understandable that the Belgian is favoured by the layers.

Joint second-favourite Mo Salah, who was Racing Post Sport's ante-post selection, will have his backers after a strong start to the season, and he is following in the betting by two England internationals.

Three Lions skipper Harry Kane has stayed at Tottenham and is 7-1 but at more than double his price, Dominic Calvert-Lewin could be worth considering as an each-way selection at 16-1.

With seven points from their opening three league fixtures, Everton look set for a good season under Rafael Benitez and Calvert-Lewin could be central to that.

The former Sheffield United man already has three goals to his name, having improved gradually in each of his last three seasons with six, 13 and then 16 strikes in the Premier League.

Richarlison will be competing with the Englishman to be on penalty duty but both are able to play in the same team and Calvert-Lewin, who operates through the centre and is 6ft 2in, could be the greatest beneficiary of Everton's enhanced wing-play.

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