Premier League outright odds & analysis after week one of the season

A week isn't just a long time in politics, it's also more than long enough for betting on this season's Premier League to experience a major shake-up.

Mid-summer whispers that we could be on the cusp of one of the more open title fights in recent history were growing in resonance, although they were generally silenced by the sounds of bookies' tills clanging as money poured in for Manchester City to successfully defend.

Pep Guardiola was still in charge, Jack Grealish jumped on board, Harry Kane would follow and City headed for Tottenham on Sunday at a largely similar title price as they were 12 months earlier.

But unlike a season before there were differences, some maybe more significant than others.

For one thing, we had three other clubs – Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United – at single-figure quotes for title glory. Going into the 2020-21 season it was 4-5 City, 9-4 Liverpool and 12-1 bar, but now we had money for several big-hitters.

United had made a couple of significant signings in Jadon Sancho and Raphael Varane, Chelsea were set to recruit Romelu Lukaku and Liverpool had the incomparable Virgil van Dijk fit and ready to go after almost a season on the sidelines.

Then there was the Community Shield. Hardly a crucial measure of where teams stand and City were weakened – but they were also played off the park by Leicester and lost. It just added to the conversation that all's not well at the Etihad, that the Premier League balance of power just might be on the point of being tilted.

And so to the opening weekend and first up came sizeable Saturday statements from United, Chelsea and Liverpool, all comprehensive winners and victorious in some style.

Twenty-four hours later it was City's turn. Sent off 4-6 shots at Tottenham and with Grealish in their starting 11, they looked fabulous for 15 minutes or so, faded awfully, were punished and even Kevin de Bruyne's late arrival off the bench couldn't save them from a chastening 1-0 defeat.

They looked shattered and maybe the first weekend of term was the ideal time to be playing a team who had sent so many of their players off to international tournaments in the summer.

But punters, guilty of a single-week overreaction perhaps, had no doubt that something was afoot. Less than seven days later and City are now odds-against to retain their crown while Chelsea, Liverpool, United and also Spurs and Leicester, have all been cut in the most dramatic of turnarounds.

The story continues this weekend but will it be enlightening or merely confusing? Certainly Manchester City are expected to get back on the horse at home to Norwich and win well – anything less than three points will see them take another walk in the market.

But none of Chelsea, United or Liverpool were seriously tested a week ago – this weekend looks different. Burnley, Anfield's visitors, have stunned Jurgen Klopp before and will always be a pain to play against. United head for Southampton, Chelsea are at Arsenal.

If all three win and win well, that talk of a wide-open title race gathers traction. And if they don't? Who knows – but it looks like it's going to be fun trying to figure it all out.

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