Premier League betting analysis: can Manchester City pick up after poor start?

Slaven Bilic's delight at West Brom's 1-1 draw with Manchester City on Tuesday proved short-lived as the Croatian was sacked the following day.

And Bilic's City counterpart Pep Guardiola, whose side were just 1-10 to beat the Baggies, may also be feeling the heat after an underwhelming start to the 2020-21 season.

City's haul of 20 points from their opening 12 fixtures is lower than their tally at this stage of any of the last ten Premier League seasons.

In the last five campaigns they had claimed 25, 32, 34, 27 and 26 points from their first dozen games and their goalscoring returns compared to recent years are particularly alarming.

Punters have come to expect dazzling, and ruthless, football from Pep's men, who outscored even runaway champions Liverpool by 102 goals to 85 last season.

This term, however, City have scored only 18 goals whereas 12 games into their 2017-18 title-winning season they had already struck 40 times.

In 2018-19, another championship-winning campaign, that figure was 36 and last term they rattled in 35 goals despite winning only eight of their first 12 matches.

At their current rate of scoring, City would end the season with a mere 57 league goals having racked up 102, 95 and 106 in their last three campaigns.

It is not a full-blown crisis – City comfortably topped their Champions League group and have drawn tricky early fixtures at home to Liverpool and away to Manchester United.

Their only defeats came against Leicester and Tottenham, when they won the shot count 16-7 and 22-4, but Sergio Aguero's injury problems have left them without a clinical finisher at the tip of their attacking unit.

The importance of actually putting the ball in the net cannot be overstated, as City know all too well. Their xG stats last season were far superior to Liverpool's but they ended up 18 points behind the champions.

Revitalising City, who went off 4-5 favourites for the title, will be a test of Guardiola's stamina as much as anything else.

This is his fifth season at the club – he took a sabbatical after four years in charge of Barcelona and left Bayern Munich after three trophy-packed campaigns – and it already looks a lot less straightforward than the ante-post betting suggested.

Can Manchester City turn things around?

Bruce Millington

Racing Post

I generally dismiss the dramatic narratives that build up around unusual sporting occurrences, because more often than not a short spell of uncharacteristically good or bad displays tends to return to the norm quite quickly.

But while City could still click back into top gear and head up the table, it genuinely feels in this case like something has changed.

There is simply not the same swagger, the same sparkle or the same ability to slice open defences as regularly as has been the case in recent seasons.

There is no single obvious reason why that is, albeit David Silva is looking an even bigger City legend with each week that he is no longer at the club, while Kevin De Bruyne is currently missing his mojo, and the problems persist at left-back.

And it is a while since a new arrival came in and gave the clear impression they are going to improve the team. I think they will do well to finish third.

Scott Minto

Broadcaster & former Chelsea defender

It takes a stubborn man not to change their mind. I fancied City to win the Premier League before it started but I really don't now given what I have seen this season and I don't think they will turn it around.

I have been so disappointed in their play throughout the campaign. Obviously, Sergio Aguero has been missed but it quite often takes him a while to get up to full speed after his injuries and I think City have been made to pay for not replacing David Silva.

Manchester United were there for the taking last week and City didn't take the game to them which amazed me.

I love Pep - he could be the greatest coach ever - but he does try to over-complicate things at times and every player is down five to ten per cent on where I expect them to be.

Kevin Pullein

Racing Post

Last season Manchester City’s standards dropped from an incredible high and they conceded more goals.

Either they were not pressing as well to win the ball back, or opponents had found ways to play through them anyway. Too often they were picked off on the counter-attack.

And they still were at the start of this season. They conceded five in a defeat at home to Leicester. Then, I think, manager Pep Guardiola decided things had to change. Since then City have played with more caution positionally in most games – not just against top opponents, which they have been doing for three seasons now.

And it has worked, up to a point. City have conceded just six goals in their last ten Premier League games. They still had the ball most of the time, but with fewer players in threatening areas they caused a lot less menace. They scored only 13 goals in those ten games, and five came all at once against Burnley.

I think City’s season hinges on whether they can retain that newly restored defence while regaining the old swagger in attack. At the moment I have them in for 78 points.

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