New-look Gunners rearguard must raise their game to maintain impressive run

Heading into the first international break of the season in early September, Arsenal were bottom of the Premier League and Mikel Arteta was odds-on favourite to be the next manager to leave his job.

Six wins in eight league games since then have propelled the Gunners up the table, helped by a significant defensive turnaround. But just how much of that improvement is sustainable over the course of the season?

They shipped nine goals in their opening three fixtures, but have allowed only four in their next eight outings. Only Chelsea have conceded fewer goals in that time and no team have surpassed Arsenal's five clean sheets during that run.

The most important factor in the Gunners' defensive record is almost certainly the quality of their opponents. Having taken on Chelsea and Manchester City (where they played with ten men for 55 minutes) in August, they then faced four of the current bottom five in their last eight fixtures and the average league position of their opponents was 13.6.

Another major change is that goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale started their last eight league games and the £30m summer signing has hit the ground running. Only Chelsea's Edouard Mendy has a higher save percentage than Ramsdale's 86 per cent and the ex-Sheffield United stopper leads the way in goals saved compared to expected goals (xG) from shots on targets per game, according to Statsbomb/fbref post-shot xG.

Ramsdale's form and the wastefulness of opponents mean Arsenal's tally of four goals conceded in their last eight is a hefty overperformance compared to their underlying metrics. They have allowed chances worth 8.4 expected goals against (xGA), ranking only seventh-best during that run despite a favourable sequence of fixtures.

One mitigating factor is the position they have found themselves in games, as they may have often sat back to protect leads, and it is possible that they could raise their overall level as new signings Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu settle in.

They will need to, however, as last season Ramsdale ranked closer to the league average in the shot-stopping stats mentioned above. That suggests the keeper's level of performance in his first eight league appearances for the Gunners is unlikely to continue.

Looking at the 2021-22 season as a whole, Arsenal have let in 13 goals from an xGA of 16.5 - the equivalent of conceding 0.32 fewer goals per game than the quality of chances they allow.

As the accompanying table demonstrates, it is usually hard to sustain that level of overperformance. The table lists all the Premier League teams since 2017-18 who have overperformed to a similar degree on xGA through 11 games, including Chelsea this season.

The 12 teams from previous seasons all suffered regression towards the mean, either by overperforming to a much lower degree or by actually underperforming for the remainder of the campaign. It is not a huge sample size but 11 of those 12 conceded more goals per game in their remaining 27 games than they did in their first 11.

Arsenal were not as bad as the fixture list, injuries and Granit Xhaka's ill discipline made them appear in their opening three games, but punters should be cautious over whether they can sustain their recent levels.

Their defenders will certainly face a good test on Saturday against a Liverpool side who have created the most chances in the Premier League and boast the joint-best conversion rate.

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