Misfiring forwards should start hitting the back of the net soon for Wolves

Wolves have taken 57 shots in the Premier League without scoring. What are the odds? Quite high.

Across the nine Premier League seasons before this one there were 88,144 shots and 9,328 goals. So there was one goal for every nine or ten shots. The odds that a typical Premier League team will take 57 shots without scoring are probably almost 600-1.

There are 20 different teams in the Premier League. The odds at any given time that at least one will not have scored from their last 57 shots are probably about 30-1. Not so high.

At this time there is such a team and it is Wolves. Only Liverpool and Manchester City this season have taken more shots than Wolves. Arsenal have not scored this season but they have scored within their last 57 shots.

New Wolves manager Bruno Lage has asked his players to attack more. And they have done what he asked. They have got into shooting positions more frequently.

Wolves in the previous three seasons averaged between 12 and 13 shots per game. This season they have taken 17, 25 and 15 shots, in games against top opponents – Leicester, Tottenham and Manchester United, all of whom are likely to finish in the upper third of the table. But this season no shots have gone in.

Most people who have watched Wolves, I think, would agree that they have played well against tough opponents. Harsh critics would say the finishing was as bad as it could be. Wiser critics would recognise that sometimes this happens.

Three seasons ago Wolves averaged one goal every ten shots. Two seasons ago they averaged one goal every nine shots. Last season they averaged one goal every 13 shots, but for most of last season they were without lead striker Raul Jimenez. Now he is back. Have Wolves somehow become a team who will repeatedly take 57 shots without scoring?

I am reminded of a conversation in Ernest Hemingway’s novel The Old Man and the Sea. The old man goes fishing every day but he has not caught a fish in 84 days. For the first 40 days he had taken a boy with him. Then the boy was told by his father to fish with someone else. Now the old man and the boy meet on the beach. They had fished together for a lot more than those 40 days.

“Remember how you went 87 days without fish and then we caught big ones every day for three weeks.”
“I remember. I know you did not leave me because you doubted.”
“It was papa made me leave. I am a boy and I must obey him.”
“I know. It is quite normal.”
“He hasn’t much faith.”
“No. But we have. Haven’t we?”
“Yes.”

There is good news and bad news for Wolves. The bad news is in the past. The good news is about the future. Wolves have played three games without scoring. But over a small number of games, goals are much less reliable than shots as a guide to how often a team will score in their next game.

I studied the last nine Premier League seasons – 2012-13 to 2020-21 – from the fourth game onwards. I noted how many goals a team scored, how many goals they had scored in their previous three games and how many shots they had taken in their previous three games.

Shots from the past three games were better than goals from the past three games as an indicator of how often a team would score in their next game. Mixing the two together gave a better indication still, but in a mixture where there was a lot more of one ingredient than the other – five parts shots data to one part goals data.

I repeated the exercise with different numbers of previous games. As the number of previous games went up, the optimum weights changed. But even when I considered a previous 19 games – half a season – shots data still deserved slightly more weight than goals data.

By the time Wolves have played 19 games they will probably have scored a healthy number of goals anyway. More likely than not, I think, they will get the first of them at Watford on Saturday.

What Tottenham will see when they look in the mirror

Before this season began Nuno Espirito Santo left Wolves and became manager of Tottenham.

Now Tottenham are top of the Premier League with a maximum nine points from three games. They have scored three goals without conceding any. They won each game 1-0. Wolves are in the relegation zone with the minimum of zero points. They have conceded three goals without scoring any. They lost each game 1-0.

Tottenham’s results have been a mirror image of Wolves’s results. In one game they played each other.

Tottenham’s shots stats are close to being a mirror image of Wolves’s shots stats – but not the sort of mirror image you might have imagined before you had read the other words on this page.

Tottenham have scored three goals, Wolves have conceded three goals. Tottenham have taken 37 shots and Wolves have faced 27 shots. Those shots totals are similar, and three goals from them is perfectly normal.

Wolves have not scored any goals and Tottenham had not conceded any. Wolves have taken 57 shots and Tottenham have faced 52 shots. Those shots totals are also similar, but no goals from them is not normal.

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