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The Assist

Mark Langdon's best bets, free football tips & Premier League team of the season

Carlo Ancelotti's tough Toffees can end Premier League season on a high

Everton could seal Bournemouth's fate on Sunday
Everton could seal Bournemouth's fate on SundayCredit: Pool

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Best bets

Everton
1pt 13-10 Betfred
Arsenal
1pt 19-20 general
West Ham +0.25 Asian handicap
1pt 24-25 bet365

Everton v Bournemouth

Sky Sports Golf, 4pm Sunday

If the climax to the Premier League season is anything like Wednesday's Sky Bet Championship thriller it could be a special Sunday of TV channel hopping, with all ten matches available across the Sky Sports and BT Sport networks.

Wednesday showcased the drama of the Championship but also that teams who need to win don't always win despite the odds becoming artificially short.

In theory Birmingham could have been relegated but still lost 3-1 at home to Derby. Champions Leeds sent Charlton down even though the Addicks had the greater desire. A draw was no good for either side at the DW Stadium but that was the result played out between Wigan and Fulham, while West Brom's promotion was sealed only because of results elsewhere after mid-table QPR held them to a 2-2 draw at the Hawthorns.

Nottingham Forest spectacularly missed out on a playoff spot following a 4-1 hammering at home to struggling Stoke and only two teams who had the greater urgency for points (Swansea at Reading and Luton at home to Blackburn) managed to win.

Reading had a player sent off and Luton needed two own goals and a penalty - which was their only shot on target - to beat a Blackburn side who dominated most of the key statistics such as possession, shots and shots on target.

Baggies boss Slaven Bilic spoke recently about the inability of his players to deal with the pressure and sometimes being relaxed can be an advantage. Some will handle it and some won't but if you back a team with everything on the line you will be paying a hefty, and arguably too hefty, premium for the privilege.

Take Bournemouth as a prime example. They need to win and also require Watford and Aston Villa to lose if they are to stay in the Premier League. They are priced accordingly for the trip to mid-table Everton.

However, there are very sound reasons why Bournemouth are in the bottom three and have only 31 points. They have lost nine Premier League away matches in succession.

Eddie Howe's side have won three Premier League matches since Christmas and have kept one clean sheet in their last 20 outings.

Goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale was named as the man of the match in last week's 2-0 defeat at home to Southampton and for all of Everton's lethargic post-lockdown performances, Goodison Park remains a fortress.

Carlo Ancelotti's side also showed they were up for the fight when scuppering Sheffield United's Europa League dreams on Tuesday with a gritty 1-0 success at Bramall Lane, while the front two of Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin could enjoy open spaces to attack late on if Bournemouth over-commit.

Arsenal v Watford

Sky Sports Football, 4pm Sunday

There is slightly more nervousness about selecting Arsenal as they have the FA Cup final next week but Mikel Arteta is likely to want a reaction to the 1-0 defeat at Aston Villa in midweek.

Hector Bellarin, Kieran Tierney, Sokratis, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Nicolas Pepe, Joe Willock and Granit Xhaka were on the bench at Villa so are likely to return and opponents Watford appear to be in turmoil after dropping into the bottom three on Tuesday.

The sacking of Nigel Pearson, replacing him with the inexperienced Hayden Mullins, was an almighty risk from the club.

They have lost five of their last seven games, however, and taken one point from the last seven road trips so they would have struggled even with Pearson at the helm.

West Ham v Aston Villa

BT Sport, 4pm Sunday

Watford could go down with a win or stay up with a narrow defeat, such are the fine margins in the relegation fight. But in terms of drama much will depend on whether Aston Villa are in control of their game at West Ham.

A point is likely to be enough for improving Villa so they make no appeal at their short odds. Dean Smith's side have won twice away this season and one of those was at relegated Norwich.

July has been a good month for West Ham, who have beaten Chelsea, Norwich and Watford and also claimed creditable draws at Newcastle and Manchester United.

West Ham showed plenty of fight at Old Trafford on Wednesday and a bet on West Ham on the Asian handicap will return a profit so long as they avoid defeat.

Thought for the week

Here's the team of the season, well at least the bits I can remember. That opening night when Liverpool beat Norwich feels like 11 years ago rather than 11 months but here goes...

Goalkeeper Dean Henderson: Must be pushing for a spot at parent club Manchester United after a great season for Sheffield United.

Right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold: Thirteen assists and four goals from right-back is madness.

Centre-back Willy Boly: Since returning from injury Boly has played in 13 league games for Wolves, who have kept nine clean sheets.

Centre-back Virgil van Dijk: A game-changer for Liverpool.

Left-back Andy Robertson: Pretty obvious really. And by the way when did Benjamin Mendy get so rubbish?

Midfield Kevin De Bruyne: The best player in the league.

Midfield Jordan Henderson: Captain marvel.

Midfield Bruno Fernandes: Seven assists and seven goals in 13 league matches after coming from Portugal and good enough to get United fans dreaming of a brighter future.

Right wing Raheem Sterling: I know he plays on the left, but I didn't want to leave out Sadio Mane.

Left wing Sadio Mane: Scored fewer goals than Mo Salah and had fewer assists but felt more important at key moments to Liverpool's success.

Striker Danny Ings: Two behind Jamie Vardy in the Golden Boot race but arguably the more consistent performer and the most frequent first scorer in the Premier League.


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Published on 23 July 2020inThe Assist

Last updated 15:27, 23 July 2020

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