Hull City v Chelsea: Where to watch, match odds, form, stats and verdict

FA Cup fourth round: Hull City v Chelsea

Where to watch

BT Sport 1, 5.30pm Saturday

Match odds

11-2 Hull, 1-2 Chelsea, 19-5 draw

Form

Chelsea remain fourth in the Premier League but they are struggling for consistency with just one top-flight success (3-0 against Burnley) in 2020 after failing to overcome ten-man Arsenal in a 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday.

Frank Lampard was annoyed by Chelsea's lack of efficiency in the final third and mentioned expected-goals data following the disappointing result against Arsenal, believing the Blues should have more points given the performances and chances created.

Understat.com reckon Chelsea have left seven goals on the table - making only Watford more wasteful - and fbref.com believe Chelsea's true expected goal difference should be plus 20 rather than plus nine.

However, rather than in attack, as Lampard suggested, fbref put the blame firmly at the feet, or rather hands, of keeper Kepa. On their xG ratings Chelsea have conceded nine goals more than would have been expected.

Hull, mid-table in the Sky Bet Championship, have lost successive league matches 1-0 against Fulham and Derby.

Team news

Tammy Abraham's ankle injury needs to be assessed and he could join Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Christian Pulisic on the Chelsea sidelines. Reece James may return.

Jon Toral and Kevin Stewart remain out, while Norbert Balogh lacks match fitness. Jordy de Wijs, Stephen Kingsley and Kamil Grosicki could return.

The tactical battle

Hull tend to play a 4-2-3-1 formation and all their strength comes in the wide areas on the break with just Cardiff and Millwall averaging less possession in this season's Sky Bet Championship. Nobody has scored more goals on the counter in the second tier.

Right-winger Jarrod Bowen is the man who could provide the upset - he has scored 16 times in the Championship with another six assists. Only Aleksandar Mitrovic and Cauley Woodrow are averaging more shots.

Bowen, however, has gone quiet with one goal in his last seven appearances amid concerns he is unsettled by transfer rumours.

He will be up against Chelsea's weakest area and if James is fit to return Lampard may decide to switch solid skipper Cesar Azpilicueta to left-back to negate Bowen's ability to harm the Blues.

Verdict

Chelsea's strength in depth means Lampard can rotate his squad and it's unlikely to change the team dynamic too much with Marcos Alonso, Kurt Zouma, Ross Barkley, Mason Mount, Pedro and Michy Batshuayi, all subs in midweek, more than capable of landing a routine success against average Championship opponents.

Backing Chelsea minus one on the Asian handicap looks a fair bet to quieten potentially the biggest Hull crowd in nearly 50 years as the KCom heads for a sell-out. Chelsea 2-0.

Key stats

• Chelsea have won their last seven games against Hull and six of those were to nil
• Both teams have scored in 11 of Chelsea's 15 away games this season
• Hull have managed just three shots on target in total in their last two league matches
• Wingers Bowen and Grosicki have scored 22 of Hull's 40 league goals this season

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