How Manchester City won another Premier League and what was different this time

Was there a decisive match in Manchester City becoming champions? Some say it was a 3-1 win at Chelsea, when everything came together. Manager Pep Guardiola says it was earlier, a 1-1 draw at home to West Bromwich after which the players challenged each other to do better.

Others claim it was before then, a 2-0 defeat at Tottenham. I put it earlier still, the second game of the season, at home to Leicester. City lost 5-2.

Was there a tactical change that propelled City to the top of the Premier League?

Some say Guardiola found a way of attacking without a recognised striker. He had done that before. Lionel Messi at Barcelona was Guardiola’s first false nine. City for most of this season have played without a genuine nine – and scored fewer goals.

Some say it was Joao Cancelo moving when City got the ball from full-back into midfield. This was not new either. Guardiola had asked other players to make that switch. He started with Philipp Lahm at Bayern Munich. And he has always done it at City. In his first season City finished third.

Some say it was the signing of centre-back Ruben Dias. I agree that Dias improved City’s defending. Everyone would. But I do not think Dias explains all of the improvement. And better defending, I believe, is why City won the title.

City were champions two and three seasons ago. Last season they scored as many goals but conceded more than before and dropped to second.

Guardiola’s City had begun to resemble Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal. They kept the ball for a long time but conceded in too many of the brief moments when they did not have it. There is no point having twice as much of the ball if your opponents are three times as likely to score when they do get it.

Would this season go the same way as last? After City conceded five to Leicester, I think, Guardiola decided enough was enough. Something had to change.

Of the next five games City won only two and drew the other three, which is not title-winning form. There was some hope for the future, though. They conceded only three goals. In those games, I felt, Guardiola asked his players to position themselves more cautiously when City were in possession, so they could respond more effectively if it was lost. The priority was to concede less often, even if that meant scoring less often as well.

Then City lost 2-0 at Totttenham. This was yet another game in which they had most of the ball but conceded most or all of the goals. Was it a bump on the road to recovery or would there always be too many potholes? At the time there was no way of telling. Afterwards we found out. City conceded only six goals in their next 19 games.

As they became more confident in their ability to defend when they did not have the ball they started to release more players into attacking positions when they did have the ball. And they started to score more goals – still not as many as before but enough in those 19 games to win 17 and draw the other two.

With five more wins from the next eight games they became champions.

Guardiola has now lifted the Premier League trophy in three out of five seasons with City. Let us compare those title-winning campaigns – specifically the games before they were assured of winning the title. Those are the ones that mattered.

Three seasons ago City scored 2.8 goals per game, two seasons ago 2.5 and this season 2.1. Each season they had less possession – 71 per cent followed by 68 per cent then 64 per cent – and each season they scored less regularly.

Three seasons ago City conceded 0.8 goals per game, two seasons ago 0.6 and this season 0.7. This season they defended as well as they had across the previous title-winning seasons. They faced almost as many shots as last season – 7.0 per game instead of 7.4 – but in less dangerous situations.

So City defended as well this season as when they won the title before. They scored less regularly but that did not stop them because nobody else played consistently like potential champions. Liverpool unravelled at Christmas.

Not long after City lost 2-0 at Tottenham they drew 0-0 at Manchester United. They were criticised for playing negatively. I found that performance encouraging. I thought it showed that Guardiola realised that if City were to win the title this season they would not do so in quite the same way they did before.

This season for the first time City have reached the Champions League final. Too often in previous seasons in a knockout round opponents found it too easy to score against them – Lyon last season, Tottenham two seasons ago, Liverpool three seasons ago, Monaco four seasons ago.

This season in the quarter-finals there were worrying signs that the same thing could happen again. Dortmund threatened repeatedly on the counter-attack, often after gaining possession high up the pitch. City went through 4-2 on aggregate but without bad VAR decisions they could have gone out.

Alarm bells rang again during defeats by Chelsea in an FA Cup semi-final and then in the Premier League, though on those occasions Guardiola did not start with his strongest line-up. Against PSG in the Champions League semi-finals, however, it was a different story. Rarely were City troubled by counter-attacks. So for them this season will not end on Sunday but next Saturday with the most important game in the club’s history – the Champions League final against Chelsea.

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