How Leeds won the Championship and where they might finish in the Premier League

Surprising Marcelo Bielsa fact number one. Leeds won the Championship this season because they defended better. Last season they finished third, this season first. Last season they scored 73 goals, this season 77 – slightly more. Last season they conceded 50 goals, this season 35 – a lot fewer.

The coach who aims always to attack turned a near miss into a hit with more accurate defence. When a coach prefers one side of the game the difference between a good and a better season will often be what happens on the other. Think of Bielsa’s pupil Pep Guardiola and Manchester City.

Leeds spent as long with the ball – they had 64 per cent possession both seasons. This season when they had the ball they scored about as regularly, but when they did not have the ball they conceded less regularly.

So Leeds will be back in the Premier League after 16 seasons away. How well might they do?

No one beats me for admiration of Bielsa. With him as their manager I loved watching Argentina, Chile, Athletic Bilbao and Marseille. Because they were always entertaining, no matter what the score. And so are Leeds.

Let us, though, consider not the style but the substance of Leeds’ play in the Championship, and what it might become in the Premier League.

I compared results from one season to the next for teams promoted from the Championship to the Premier League. I started with teams promoted from the Championship in 1994-95 who played in the Premier League in 1995-96 and ended with teams promoted from the Championship in 2017-18 who played in the Premier League in 2018-19. There were 71 of them. They included teams who went up automatically and those who won the playoffs.

On average promoted teams won 87 points in the Championship and 39 points the following season in the Premier League.

Promoted teams who were better than average in the Championship tended to be better than average as well in the Premier League, and promoted teams who were worse than average in the Championship tended to be worse than average as well in the Premier League.

Leeds are better than average Championship promotion-winners. They accumulated 93 points. In the Premier League such teams have averaged 42 points and 15th place.

Surprising Bielsa fact number two. It is said that Bielsa improved Leeds without them spending more money. This is not true.

In the eight seasons from 2010-11 to 2017-18 Leeds’ average rank for Championship wages was 12th. Their average Championship position was 12th. Last season with Bielsa as manager Leeds’ expenditure rose, in relative as well as absolute terms.

Leeds’ payroll was £46 million. This was the sixth or seventh highest in the Championship. There is some doubt because as I write the accounts of four clubs are not on the Companies House website, and one of those might have paid more in wages than Leeds. Four of the five who definitely paid more received Premier League parachute payments.

It would be wrong to say Leeds’ improvement last season was attributable entirely to higher spending. But it would also be wrong to say spending did not go up. This season Leeds’ payroll has probably risen again, and not only because of the addition of promotion bonuses.

Next season in the Premier League Bielsa will ask what he always asks of players – try to recover the ball quickly, attack and shoot. Leeds will be a joy to watch, whatever happens. And their results in the Championship suggest that what happens should be good enough to keep them in the Premier League.

Watford appoint the right managers then sack them wrongly

Nigel Pearson lost his job on Sunday. He was Watford’s third manager this season and their fifth in five seasons in the Premier League. One of the others did the job twice.

Pearson managed Watford for 20 Premier League games, from which they gained 25 points. At that rate over a whole 38-game season they would collect between 47 and 48 points. In only one of the five seasons have they accumulated more.

That was last season when Javi Gracia delivered 50 points. He was sacked four games into this season.

There is generally a relationship between performances and pay. But clubs can over- or under-achieve, because they were lucky or unlucky or because their choices deserved good or bad value for money.

Watford’s payroll by my reckoning has entitled owner Gino Pozzo to expect points totals in the low 40s. What he got in previous season was 45, 40, 41 then 50 points.

There will be natural fluctuations, and from that level only a small fluctuation downward could mean relegation. This season Watford will finish with a maximum of 37 points and could be relegated.

Pozzo sacks a manager when the team go through a bad patch. Someone who does this can always think they made the right decision. Usually results improve – but they probably would have improved anyway. And if they do not, the new manager is sacked as well. Keep sacking managers and sooner or later one change will be followed by an upturn in results.

Pozzo would be right to say there are many people capable of managing Watford. But why sack the person who is managing them and managing them well? Any time there could be a valid behind-the-scenes explanation we do not know about. But every time? This was not the first and probably will not be the last.

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