FA Cup semi-finals bring back memories of winning and losing bets

On August 1, Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City or Manchester United will win the FA Cup. I have watched 50 captains lift the trophy. For 30 years I have written about football. And in the Racing Post I have given tips on FA Cup finals featuring Arsenal, Chelsea, City and United. How did they get on and what have I learned from them?

In the film A Good Year a boy called Max is beaten at tennis by his Uncle Henry. Afterwards Uncle Henry consoles him. “You’ll come to see that a man learns nothing from winning,” says Uncle Henry. “The act of losing, however, can elicit great wisdom, not least of which is how much more enjoyable it is to win. It is inevitable to lose now and again. The trick is not to make a habit of it.”

I feel I have learned most from losing but also something from winning.

FA Cup final tips I remember particularly well came in 2014 when Arsenal beat Hull, in 2013 when Manchester City lost to Wigan, in 2009 when Chelsea beat Everton and in 1999 when Manchester United beat Newcastle.

A Sound of Thunder is a story by Ray Bradbury published in Collier’s magazine in 1952. A time traveller who goes back millions of years treads on a butterfly accidentally. When they return to the present it is different: people speak and act differently. A tiny change in the distant past had led to huge changes in the present.

Edward Lorenz, creator of chaos theory, put a living butterfly in the title of a speech he gave in 1972 to the American Association for the Advancement of Science. It was called “Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?” Lorenz was not sure the answer was yes, but nonetheless his words became part of the popular vocabulary, and without a question mark. Lorenz was sure that a small change in one thing could provoke big changes in others.

And that is what I learned from my tips on Arsenal, Chelsea, City and United. Everything that happens in a football match influences every other. Change one thing and you could change another. Any betting market can be turned upside down by developments in another.

In 2014 when Arsenal played Hull City I tipped under 25 bookings points at 7-4. Each yellow would count as ten points and each red as 25. I do not usually watch a match I have bet on so before this one kicked off I pressed record on my television, switched off the sound and went to my office to do some work.

Ten minutes later my wife poked her head round the door. Did I know Arsenal were losing 2-0? Straight away I realised that my bet would almost certainly go down. The big boys were not getting things their own way. Arsenal would become impatient when they did not have the ball and could make rash tackles. Hull would defend more desperately than ever now they had so much to defend.

In the event, Arsenal scored twice to equalise. But for them even a levelled score late in normal time would have felt bad – not as bad as losing but still bad. And for Hull it would have felt good – not as good as winning but still good. Four players were shown a yellow card. The bookings make-up was 40 points. The tie then went into extra time when Arsenal scored again and won.

Twelve months earlier I had benefited from big boys not getting their way. Manchester City played Wigan. I tipped Manchester City +1 Asian handicap cards at decimal odds of 1.925. Each yellow would count as one card and each red as two cards. I needed City to get as many or more than Wigan.

I was at home in my office when the match finished. My phone pinged. There was a text from Bruce Millington. It said great tip. Bruce is kind in that way. He will praise you when things are going well and not criticise you when things are going badly. A tipster could not wish for anything more.

If my tip had won I guessed City had not. And I was right. Wigan had scored the only goal of the game in second half added time. They had received one yellow. City had received three yellows and a red.

I went to the 2009 final with Chelsea fan Steve Palmer. I had tipped the same number of goals in both halves at 11-4.

Louis Saha scored for Everton after 25 seconds, the fastest goal ever in an FA Cup final. I realised it probably would not turn out to be a good goal for me. Three times out of four when the same number of goals is scored in each half the number is nought or one. There had been one goal already in the first half and it had only just started. Didier Drogba equalised for Chelsea before half-time and Frank Lampard scored a winner after. Steve was happy and I was happy for him, but not for myself.

In the 1999 final Manchester United played Newcastle. Manchester United had already won the Premier League and four days after the FA Cup final they would play Bayern Munich in the Champions League final. Newcastle had finished 13th in the Premier League. In those days I tipped on the spreads, and I thought that in spread betting terms Manchester United were more than a goal better than Newcastle.

During the week IG Index released their spreads and quoted supremacy lower than one goal. I advised a buy. On Friday I worked in the Racing Post office. Bruce took a fax off the machine, looked at it and gave it to me. “They’re taking you on,” he smiled. Sporting Index were quoting supremacy even lower than IG.

Bill James, a pioneer of baseball analytics, wrote this about ratings: “Any system which is never surprising is never interesting. Any system which is consistently surprising is probably wrong.” My ratings were not often surprising and they were not always wrong. Should I trust them now? I respected deeply the senior traders at IG and Sporting. But the die had been cast. I wrote buy with Sporting too.

Roy Keane went off injured after nine minutes. Keane and Paul Scholes would be suspended for the Champions League final so replacement midfielder Nicky Butt was not even on the bench at Wembley.

Instead the soon to be Sir Alex Ferguson sent on a forward, Teddy Sheringham. Ninety-six seconds later Sheringham scored and Manchester United went on to win 2-0. Four days later Sheringham scored an injury time equaliser in the Champions League final, which United then won 2-1. Change one thing and you can change others.

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