Anfield trip is serious test of Aston Villa's improvement under Steven Gerrard

Aston Villa conceded 13 goals in the five successive Premier League defeats that ended Dean Smith's tenure and tightening up at the back has been the main catalyst for the club, for whom Steven Gerrard has won three of his first four games in charge.

Villa's defence was ranked 18th in terms of goals conceded after 11 matches of the 2021-22 campaign, a significant decline from last term when they ranked joint-seventh in that department and only Manchester City and Chelsea kept more clean sheets.

On underlying numbers the picture is a bit closer. Last season Villa averaged 1.39 expected goals against per game (ranking 12th), worsening slightly to an average of 1.52 xGA per game (13th in the division) under Smith this term.

Last season variance worked in their favour in the shape of wasteful opposition finishing and excellent goalkeeping from Emiliano Martinez. Only one top-flight team benefited to a greater extent from opponents undershooting their xG against them (46 goals conceded from 52.9 xGA).

That has swung right around this season as only two Premier League clubs suffered more from opponents outshooting their xG against them to a larger degree after 11 games (20 goals conceded from 16.7 xGA).

Villa's four matches under Gerrard is too measly a sample size to start making strong conclusions. So far, though, their underlying process has improved since the change of manager, as they have allowed only 0.85 xGA per game (ranking third) and their average number of shots conceded has dropped from 14.4 to 10.8.

That is particularly impressive considering that Villa faced Manchester City during that run, losing 2-1 last week but holding the champions to their lowest xG figure of the season.

Comparisons with the Scottish Premiership must be taken with a pinch of salt, but Gerrard's record at Rangers shows that he clearly prioritises defensive structure and last season his unbeaten championship-winning side conceded just 13 goals in 38 games.

The trade-off for increased solidity at the back may be a slight decrease in attacking output as Gerrard's first three games were all in Villa's bottom six for xG created this season.

The Liverpool hero-turned-Villan will know that Saturday's trip to Anfield represents the toughest test his new side will face all season as Jurgen Klopp's red-hot attackers are averaging almost three goals per game.

It is unlikely that Villa will keep their underlying numbers quite as low as they have so far under their new boss but the overall picture appears positive, especially if Argentina goalkeeper Martinez's form picks up again.

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