Championship club can get back on track on tricky away day

Millwall v Nottingham Forest

Saturday 3pm

Aitor Karanka is reportedly fighting for his job after his Forest teams collapsed at Norwich on Wednesday. But they remain a strong Sky Bet Championship outfit and should come out fighting at Millwall.

A point at Norwich could not be described as a bad result - far from it given the Canaries are second in the table - but it was the manner of the draw given the Tricky Trees led 3-0 with 13 minutes remaining.

Twelve draws have held Forest back, although they have lost only four times and remain a potential playoff team following a summer of heavy investment.

Central midfielders Claudio Yacob and Jack Colback bring Premier League experience and the attacking midfield three of Matty Cash, Joe Lolley and Joao Carvalho behind 14-goal Lewis Grabban is dangerous enough to gain a positive result at The Den.

Karanka also has a vast squad with Adlene Guedioura, Ben Watson, Daryl Murphy, Ben Osborn, Saidy Janko and Gil Dias on the bench at Carrow Road and that could be key given the packed schedule.

Millwall moved up to 20th following a scrappy 1-0 win over fellow relegation rivals Reading, although the Royals were reduced to ten men before the ten-minute mark and finished with nine players.

Still Millwall managed only three shots on target and virtually nothing came from open play as the Lions just about snapped an eight-game winless streak.

More will be needed to overcome Forest, who can follow Sheffield United, Birmingham and Swansea's lead by gaining a win at the Den with the visitors' only away loss coming at Brentford when the west London outfit were bang in form.

Recommendation
Nottingham Forest draw no bet
1pt Evs general

Bet on this match at Soccerbase.com

Sunderland v Shrewsbury

Saturday 3pm

One look at the prices for this League One clash will highlight just how important expected goals are in the betting markets these days but Sunderland can defy the shot-stat doomsayers by overcoming Shrewsbury.

The general consensus is that Shrewsbury are a touch unfortunate to be as low as 18th in League One and Sunderland have had a huge amount of luck to hit third spot, five points off the pace being set by Portsmouth with two matches in hand.

Sunderland may well hit the buffers in the second half of the campaign, yet they forced seven shots on target to Bradford's two on Wednesday in front of a crowd just shy of 50,000, and had 62 per cent possession with the corner tally 9-1 in their favour.

Bradford were controversially not awarded a late equaliser when an attempt seemed to go over the goalline and the good news for boss Jack Ross kept coming with the return from injury of former Bantam Charlie Wyke.

It's unlikely Wyke will start given the form of Josh Maja, while Aiden McGeady is another who may prove too good for Shrewsbury.

The Shrews have lost five of their last six on the road and were beaten 2-0 by Sunderland in the reverse fixture.

Recommendation
Sunderland
1pt 19-20 general

Bet on this match at Soccerbase.com

Parma v Roma

Saturday 2pm

There had been suggestions of Serie A being suspended after the disgraceful scenes at San Siro on Wednesday, when fans were stabbed outside the stadium and Napoli defender Kalidou Koulibaly was subjected to monkey chants from some Inter supporters.

The league goes ahead and Roma can beat Parma.

Roma's match with Sassuolo on Wednesday was less headline-grabbing as the Wolves won 3-1 in a performance coach Eusebio Di Francesco called "one of our best performances of the season."

Nicolo Zaniolo scored a quite sublime goal but it has been the recent return of Diego Perotti, Edin Dzeko, Stephan El Shaarawy and Lorenzo Pellegrini from injury which will make all the difference.

Only four teams have poorer expected-goal figures than Parma, who mugged ten-man Fiorentina last time out - it was 34-6 to La Viola on shots and 8-2 on target.

It could be argued Sunderland have the quality to outperform their chances down in League One - but it's difficult to make the same case for a Parma side who were plying their trade in Serie B last season.

Recommendation
Roma
1pt 31-40 Betway

Bet on this match at Soccerbase.com

Plays of the day

Banker
Roma 31-40
The Serie A table says there are only two points between Parma and Roma have been hugely handicapped by a long injury list which is finally beginning to ease up.

Blowout
Exeter 5-6
This is no gimme for the odds-on Grecians against improving Grimsby. The visitors have lost only one of their last seven matches, winning each of the last three.

Accumulator
Roma 31-40, Sheff Utd 13-20, Burton 7-10, Mansfield 4-6 Betway

Both teams to score
Games at Birmingham 8-11, Norwich 13-20, Rochdale 8-11 Betway

Thought for the week

Last season Oumar Niasse became the first Premier League player to be banned for diving after he was said to have "exaggerated" his foul against Crystal Palace even though the commission accepted there had been contact from Scott Dann.

At the time I said it was a farce as it is almost impossible to categorically prove the exaggeration aspect but the commission wrote in a four-page report: "The arching of the back and the collapsing of both legs were simply not consistent with the amount of force exerted upon him by Mr Dann and in exaggerating the effect of the contact made between himself and Mr Dann, Mr Niasse deceived the referee and this led to a penalty being awarded by the referee."

Maybe the commission have had Christmas off but does that not sound a lot like how Mohamed Salah - at least the point on exaggeration - won his penalty against Newcastle on Wednesday?

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