Aaron Ashley: Saturday EFL predictions & free football betting accumulator tips
Happy Hammers poised to sink Clarets
Free football tips, bets and analysis for this weekend's Premier League and EFL matches.
Best bets
West Ham
2pts 4-5 general
Accrington
2pts 4-5 Coral, Ladbrokes
Forest Green
1pt 10-11 Coral, Hills, Ladbrokes
West Ham v Burnley
3pm Saturday
West Ham have surpassed the expectations of many already this season and David Moyes can guide his happy Hammers to maximum points at home to Burnley.
Having finished 16th last season, only five points clear of the drop, fears of another relegation scrap became more realistic as West Ham fell to defeat in their opening two games against Newcastle and Arsenal.
But they have barely put a foot wrong since their slow start and they are tenth in the Premier League after 17 matches and firmly in the reckoning for a top-half finish.
There is a long way to go and the competition is fierce, but Moyes’s men have lost only three of their last 15 top-flight assignments with their defeats coming in meetings with Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea.
The Hammers have been pretty reliable in accounting for the division’s lesser lights and much of their success has been recorded without the services of star striker Michail Antonio, who has been restricted to just seven league starts this season.
However, Antonio is fit and raring to go now and that can only bolster West Ham’s chances against a Burnley side who are well-drilled but carry little attacking threat.
The Clarets have been rejuvenated by Sean Dyche but while they have been transformed at Turf Moor, their away results and performances have been far less encouraging.
Burnley have scored in only one of their last six road fixtures and that was a 1-0 win at ten-man Arsenal, who were in a rut and had suffered defeat in five of their previous seven games.
Dyche’s men are fairly one-dimensional and providing West Ham can cope with the long balls directed towards Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes, they should nullify a Burnley side who failed to register a shot on target in Tuesday’s 1-0 loss at home to Manchester United.
Accrington v Gillingham
3pm Saturday
Only leaders Lincoln have averaged more points-per-game than Accrington in League One this season and Stanley can showcase their promotion ambitions with victory over Gillingham at the Crown Ground.
Stanley are sixth in the third tier but they are only five points behind second-placed Hull despite the Tigers having played three matches more.
Covid-19 cancellations have limited Accrington to just 17 league starts this season but they have won ten of those fixtures and they showed no ill-effects from a three-week absence when marking their return with a 2-0 win at playoff rivals Charlton last weekend.
John Coleman’s side have lost only two of their last 14 league games and that shutout at The Valley was their ninth clean sheet of the campaign.
Accy were convincing 2-0 winners on December’s trip to Gillingham, who registered only one shot on target, and since then the Kent-based club have been on a downward spiral.
Gills have lost three consecutive league matches - away reverses at Northampton and Plymouth and a 1-0 home defeat to rock-bottom Burton last time out.
Forest Green v Port Vale
3pm Saturday
Danny Pugh’s stint as Port Vale interim manager got off to the perfect start as they won 3-0 at home to Grimsby last weekend but tougher tasks lie in wait, starting with a trip to title-seekers Forest Green.
Pugh has taken charge of Vale on a temporary basis following the sacking of John Askey earlier this month and he made an immediate impact as they snapped a six-game winless run in emphatic fashion.
But despite what the scoreline suggests, Vale enjoyed only 38 per cent possession and scored three times from only four shots on target against League Two’s second-bottom club.
Vale had failed to score in three league matches prior to that and their striking woes may be more evident at New Lawn with Tom Pope a confirmed absentee and leading scorer Devante Rodney a serious doubt. Influential midfielders Ashley Hurst and Danny Whitehead are also expected to miss out.
Forest Green, who are third and just a point behind pace-setters Carlisle, have lost only one of their last ten league games and look well-poised to capitalise on Vale’s attacking absentees.
Weekend accumulators
Banker
Liverpool
Jurgen Klopp’s Reds have dropped just four points from their last 34 Premier League games at Anfield and they can deliver when it matters most against title rivals Manchester United, who have failed to win any of their last seven matches against big-six opponents.
Blowout
Chelsea
Fulham are on the rise and recent draws with Liverpool, Southampton and Tottenham suggest they can make life tough for London rivals Chelsea, who have suffered three straight road defeats.
Accumulator
West Ham 4-5, Bournemouth 11-20, Accrington 8-11, Sunderland 4-5. £1 accumulator returns £8.69 with Hills.
Both teams to score
Games at Bristol Rovers 4-5, Rochdale 17-20, Walsall 8-11. £1 treble returns £5.76 with Hills.
Thought for the week
Premier League survival is becoming more realistic by the outing for Fulham, whose only defeat in seven games came against title favourites Manchester City at the Etihad.
Scott Parker’s Cottagers have won at Leicester and battled bravely for points against Liverpool, Southampton and Tottenham during that spell and odds-on quotes for relegation appear wide of the mark.
With Fulham improving fast and Burnley back frustrating opponents, the relegation value surely lies with Brighton and Newcastle.
Sheffield United and West Brom look doomed and one of that struggling pair should join them. Excuses are wearing thin for Brighton, who have only one win in 16, while negative Newcastle are winless in six and can't depend solely on Callum Wilson.
The Brighton/West Brom/Sheffield United relegation treble is a 9-2 chance with bet365, who offer 6-1 with Newcastle replacing the Seagulls. Splitting stakes on those two looks the way to go.
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