A funny Premier League season with bad leaders and back-markers but a good pack

Only once in the past quarter-century did the Premier League leaders after ten games have as few as the 21 points of this season’s leaders Tottenham and Liverpool. Tottenham are ahead of Liverpool on goal difference.

After ten games in season 2000-01 Manchester United were ahead of Arsenal on goal difference. United finished first with 80 points, which means they accumulated points at the same rate over the rest of the season. Arsenal finished second with 70 points, which means they gathered points less quickly over the rest of the season.

The past 25 completed seasons – 1995-96 to 2019-20 – are all those since the Premier League reduced to its present size of 20 members. Teams with 21 points after ten games – whatever position that put them in – finished on average with 69.

This has been a strange season so far. Teams near the top of the table have fewer points than they usually do at this stage. So do teams near the bottom. Which means that teams closer to the middle have more. You could say it has been a good time for ordinary teams.

Look at the graph.

The pink lines shows the average number of points gained by teams in each position after ten games over the previous 25 seasons. The blue line shows the number of points gained by the team in each position this season.

Be aware that this season four teams have played only nine games – those placed ninth, tenth, 11th and 19th, who are Manchester United, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Burnley. It does not make much difference, though.

Positions one to five – the Champions League and automatic Europa League places – are occupied this season by a team who have fewer points than the average over the previous 25 seasons.

Tottenham or Liverpool could carry on acquiring points at the same rate and win the Premier League. Most likely, though, the team who become champions – whether it is Tottenham, Liverpool or somebody else – will be a team who amass points at a faster rate over the rest of the season than they have so far. Most likely we will look back and say that the team who became champions picked up pace.

Sheffield United are bottom of the Premier League with one point. No team in the previous 25 seasons had so few after ten games. Manchester City in 1995-96 and Sunderland in 2016-17 had two points. Sunderland finished with 24 and City with 38, so both collected points more quickly in the remainder of the season. But neither collected them quickly enough. Sunderland finished 20th, City 18th. Both went down.

This season the teams in positions 20 to 17 – the relegation places and the one just above – all have fewer points than the average for those positions after ten games during the previous 25 seasons. Starting from the bottom, the teams are Sheffield United, Burnley (who have a game in hand, against Manchester United), West Bromwich and Fulham.

The beneficiaries of underachievement by teams near the bottom and teams near the top have been some of those in between.

Positions seven to 15 today are occupied by teams with more points than the average from the previous quarter-century. Progressively more. Among those teams are Everton, Aston Villa, Leeds, Newcastle and Crystal Palace. They are placed eighth, tenth, 12th, 13th and 15th. To a greater or lesser extent all have exceeded reasonable pre-season expectations – Sporting Index’s spreads, for example.

Also in that section of the table are some elite clubs whose expenditure entitled their owners to anticipate better – in ninth place Manchester United, in 11th place Manchester City and in 14th place Arsenal. City and United have a game in hand, but even if they had played it and won they would not have, by the standards according to which they should be judged, a superb total.

So what will happen now?

Most likely the teams in the lowest reaches of the table – Sheffield United, Burnley, West Bromwich and Fulham – will get better results. They might not be as good as many teams who occupied those positions before – some of them probably are not – but almost certainly they are better than is suggested by their results so far.

What is less likely, for each of them individually, is speeding up by enough to stay in the Premier League. Of course at least one will not be relegated whatever happens.

A lot of opponents have a decent head start. Among those are the non-elite middle-ranking teams – Everton, Aston Villa, Leeds, Newcastle and Crystal Palace. They might slow down a little, but they could probably get away with slowing down a little. And, most likely, the champions will be a team who do better over the rest of the season than they have up until now.

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