Tottenham's poor recruitment is catching up with them

Tottenham’s game on Saturday night will mark Antonio Conte’s 20th in charge and the mini-anniversary presents the hardest test of his reign yet with champions - and long-time Harry Kane admirers - Manchester City awaiting.

The return of Conte to the Premier League was a major coup for Daniel Levy and was billed by many as the precursor for the Lilywhites returning to contention in the league after the disappointing reigns of Jose Mourinho and Nuno Espirito Santo.

However the weekend’s 2-0 loss to Wolves marked the first time since 2009 that a Conte side have suffered three defeats in a row and if his men leave the Etihad empty handed, it will be the first instance in 18 years of a Spurs side losing four league games in a row.

Conte said after the Wolves game: "For me it's very difficult to talk about fourth place because I am used to playing for other targets."

So what has gone wrong?

The number one issue that Conte and sporting director Fabio Paratici are dealing with is poor recruitment at the club in the last four years.

Since the 2019-20 season, Spurs have brought in ten players for £15 million or more - Tanguy Ndombele, Cristian Romero, Steven Bergwijn, Sergio Reguilon, Ryan Sessegnon, Bryan Gil, Emerson Royal, Rodrigo Bentancur, Pape Matar Sarr and Matt Doherty.

The combined price tag for this group of ten has been reported as an eye-watering £274.63 million and it is difficult to make a case for any of those players, bar the new signings, living up to their fees.

Conte also publicly criticised the club's approach to the January transfer window in an interview with Sky Italia.

"What happened in January was not easy. Rather than reinforce the squad, we on paper weakened it," he said.

"Bentancur and Kulusevski are ideal prospects for Tottenham, because Tottenham are seeking young players they can develop and grow, not players who are ready. That is the issue."

The 52-year-old’s preference for combative wing-backs means that position is of great importance to his sides and it is perhaps telling that although four of those on that list play in that position, none has impressed under the Italian. Against Wolves, Sessegnon was substituted after just 28 minutes.

Conte led Inter to the Serie A title last season with Achraf Hakimi and Ivan Perisic as wing-backs and it is clear that he is unhappy with the current options available to him.

Central midfield has been another position where Spurs have struggled recently in the absence of some of their key men. They have won just once in eight league games without Oliver Skipp, and when he, Pierre-Emile Hojberg and Eric Dier have started together they have kept five clean sheets in five matches.

Conte has received criticism from some for sticking with a 3-4-3 formation which can lead to them being overrun in midfield and the Italian did switch to a 4-2-3-1 after going 2-0 down on Saturday.

Conte’s managerial career has been defined by altering his tactics to the strengths of his squad and it will be worth noting if he continues with four at the back to shore up the middle of the park.

Despite the doom and gloom, finishing in the top four is still a possibility. The North London club are five points off fourth-placed West Ham with three games in hand.

However they will have to improve their record against other teams in the top half, having suffered seven defeats in 11 games.

Ultimately what Spurs fans and Conte himself may need most is patience.

In the 52-year-old’s 12 Premier League games in charge, the underlying numbers have been broadly positive despite their recent downturn in form. Spurs have accumulated 24.4 expected goals and allowed just 12.2.

For context, Tottenham’s expected goal difference for the last two full seasons has been +5.0 and -6.0.

If their figure of +12.2 under Conte was replicated over a full campaign it would be comparable to the number from their successful 2017-18 season, +32.3. With time, those numbers may start to be reflected in an upturn in results.

After the tumult and poor recruitment of recent years any manager coming in would need time to trim a bloated squad while also adding players who can play and believe in the new system.

But as Conte and Spurs are learning, in modern football time can be the most precious commodity of all.

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