Southampton v Chelsea predictions: Blues unlikely to blow away Saints

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Southampton v Chelsea in the Premier League on Tuesday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 2, 7.45pm Tuesday

Best bet

Chelsea to win & under 3.5 goals
1pt 31-20 Coral, Ladbrokes

Team news

Southampton
Stuart Armstrong could be recalled to Ralph Hassenhuttl's starting line-up. Tino Livramento (knee) is the Saints' only confirmed absentee.

Chelsea
Conor Gallagher is suspended following his red card against Leicester but Kalidou Koulibaly is available after a one-match ban. Thomas Tuchel says Mateo Kovavcic is not fit enough to start after his weekend cameo, while N'Golo Kante (hamstring) remains sidelined.

Match preview

Chelsea made sinners of the Saints on their last visit to St Mary’s when giving the hosts six of the best, but the early-season form of both teams suggests Tuesday's meeting will be a far tighter encounter.

The Blues made merry in the south coast sunshine in April as they romped to a 6-0 win, taking full advantage of a Southampton side on its last legs.

Southampton are habitually running on empty come the latter stages of the season, an unwanted side effect of the all-action style Ralph Hasenhuttl tends to employ. But with their tanks still full, the Saints could pose a much greater threat.

Wayward finishing cost them a positive result in Saturday's 1-0 defeat to Manchester United but Southampton’s high-press gave the Red Devils plenty of food for thought. Hasenhuttl packed the midfield against the Red Devils having shelved plans to switch to a 4-2-2-2 system for now.

The St Mary’s faithful showed their appreciation for their team’s efforts at full-time but the bottom line was another defeat, meaning Southampton have now won only one of their last ten Premier League matches.

Hasenhuttl is optimistic reinforcements will arrive to bolster his unconvincing frontline before the transfer window shuts on Thursday, but any new faces won’t get there in time to face Chelsea, who have won on six of their last seven visits to St Mary's.

April's 6-0 hiding is an anomaly amongst those successes, though, with one goal having been enough for the Blues in the other five of those wins. And there’s been little in the opening weeks of the season to suggest another demolition job is forthcoming from Thomas Tuchel's visitors.

Tuchel admitted the Blues rode their luck in Saturday’s 2-1 win over Leicester as a gritty Chelsea performance, reminiscent of ones seen in German’s early days in charge, helped them overcome Conor Gallagher’s early red card.

The Blues’ extra quality was decisive against the Foxes as Raheem Sterling opened his account at Stamford Bridge, and those willing to get with the Blues at odds-on will hope the classy England operator is on-song once again.

But given Chelsea have yet to score from open play on the road this term, there’s more value to be found in backing a low-scoring away victory.

Only one of Southampton’s last 11 home defeats have featured more than four goals and another heroic defeat for an energetic, but limited, Saints side looks likely.

Key stat

Chelsea have won on six of their last seven trips to Southampton.

Inside info

Southampton

Penalty taker James Ward-Prowse
Assist ace James Ward-Prowse
Set-piece aerial threat Armel Bella-Kotchap
Card magnet Mohamed Elyounoussi

Chelsea

Penalty taker Jorginho
Assist ace Marc Cucurella
Set-piece aerial threat Kalidou Koulibaly
Card magnet Reece James

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