Southampton v Aston Villa predictions: Expect a lively contest at St Mary's

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Southampton v Aston Villa in the Premier League on Friday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event, 8pm Friday

Best bet

Over 2.5 goals
1pt 4-5 bet365, Hills

Team news

Southampton
Jack Stephens is out and on-loan Chelsea striker Armando Broja is a doubt.

Aston Villa
Morgan Sanson and Bertrand Traore are doubts and Danny Ings is likely to miss the clash with his former club. Douglas Luiz, Jacob Ramsey and Trezeguet are also sidelined and Ezri Konsa is suspended.

Match preview

Before Southampton's 1-0 Premier League win over Leeds last month, manager Ralph Hasenhuttl had warned fans coming to St Mary's that "this game will not always be nice to watch so don't expect a five-star dinner".

Saints' fixture against Aston Villa on Friday looks a more tasty proposition as Villa still pose a goal threat despite the summer departure of Jack Grealish to Manchester City but are struggling to keep their opponents quiet at the other end.

The betting on the next top-flight manager to leave has been volatile over the past couple of weeks and Villa boss Dean Smith is creeping towards the head of the market after four straight league defeats.

There are excuses for Smith, whose plans have been disrupted by injuries and coronavirus absences, and it is worth remembering that Villa's three previous games before their current losing run were league wins over Everton and Manchester United at Old Trafford plus a penalty-shootout defeat at Chelsea in the EFL Cup.

However, the manner of their last three losses has heaped pressure on Smith, who saw his side throw away a 2-0 lead to lose 3-2 at home to Wolves before a lacklustre 3-1 defeat at Arsenal.

The Villa boss opted to drop England defender Tyrone Mings against West Ham last weekend but the Hammers ran out 4-1 winners at Villa Park, helped by a red card for Ezri Konsa early in the second half.

One positive for Smith is that his team know how to score goals. In Villa's last 15 matches in all competitions, only miserly European champions Chelsea have kept a clean sheet against them – and Villa had 18 shots to the Blues' 12 in that 3-0 league loss at Stamford Bridge.

Seven of Southampton's 11 points this season have been earned in their last three matches with 1-0 wins over Leeds and Watford either side of a 2-2 home draw against Burnley.

Che Adams' fine goal secured the points at Vicarage Road, where Adams and strike partner Adam Armstrong could have added to their goal tally but Saints still needed a terrific late save from Alex McCarthy to see out the win.

Southampton's five league home matches have produced only eight goals but the most recent of those was the 2-2 with Burnley and three of their five away matches have featured over 3.5 goals.

Villa tend to deliver excitement at both ends of the pitch and backing over 2.5 goals could be the best strategy in a trappy heat.

Key stat

Aston Villa have failed to score in only one of their last 15 games in all competitions.

Inside info

Southampton

Penalty taker James Ward-Prowse
Free-kick wizard James Ward-Prowse
Set-piece aerial threat Jan Bednarek
Card magnet Mohammed Salisu

Aston Villa

Penalty taker Anwar El Ghazi
Free-kick wizardEmi Buendia
Set-piece aerial threatTyrone Mings
Card magnetJohn McGinn

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