Newcastle v Aston Villa predictions, betting odds and bet builder tips: Villans value for Tyneside takeaway

Where to watch Newcastle v Aston Villa

Sky Sports Main Event & Premier League, 5.30pm Saturday

Best bet

Aston Villa or draw double chance
1pt 11-10 Hills, Betfair, Paddy Power

Newcastle v Aston Villa odds

Newcastle 3-4
Aston Villa 15-4
Draw 29-10

Odds correct at time of publishing

Newcastle v Aston Villa team news

Newcastle
Fabian Schar has overcome a hamstring injury and should be involved but Joe Willock, Emil Krafth and Javier Manquillo are out, while Eddie Howe has been coy on new signing Tino Livramento's involvement.

Aston Villa
Emiliano Buendia suffered a cruciate knee ligament injury in training this week and could miss the season. He joins Leander Dendoncker, Alex Moreno, Jacob Ramsey, Bertrand Traore, Jhon Duran and Tim Iroegbunamon on the sidelines.

Newcastle v Aston Villa predictions

Aston Villa were recently ranked as having the most optimistic fans in the Premier League entering the new season, and they can keep those expectations intact by avoiding an opening-weekend loss at Newcastle. 

A survey by The Athletic found 92 per cent of Villans were optimistic about their chances this term, far higher than any other fanbase, even supporters of treble-winners Manchester City.

And it's easy to understand why when examining the form of Villa since Unai Emery arrived at the club. 

In Villa’s final game before Emery took charge, they were hammered 4-0 at Newcastle, a result that left them one point outside the relegation zone. 

But their transformation under Emery has been remarkable. They collected 49 points in the final 27 games - two more than Newcastle for the same period - and secured European qualification for the first time in 12 years via a seventh-place finish.

Emery achieved success without overhauling the Villa squad, squeezing more out of players such as Douglas Luiz and Ollie Watkins, who ended the season with 15 goals to his name.

The ex-Arsenal boss has earned Villa’s trust and they have backed him in the transfer market with the addition of Pau Torres, Youri Tielemans and Moussa Diaby, all upgrades, particularly the pacey and potent Diaby.

Villa have arguably done better work in the summer window than Newcastle, who have bulked up for a first Champions League campaign in 21 years by signing Sandro Tonali, Harvey Barnes and Tino Livramento. 

Milan playmaker Tonali looks an awkward fit in Newcastle’s midfield, while Barnes is viewed as the lesser of the two creative Englishmen Leicester had in their shop window, the other being James Maddison, who went to Tottenham.

 Livramento suffered a serious knee injury while at Southampton so all three of the new arrivals have points to prove.

But they don’t weaken a squad that performed above expectations last season when finishing fourth. 

Eddie Howe’s charges were awkward customers for everyone and proved tough to beat, ending the campaign with five defeats, the same number as champions Manchester City. 

Bookmakers make Newcastle odds-on to defeat Villa at St James’ Park, where they lost only twice last term and conceded the second-fewest home goals.

But these two look more evenly matched than the prices suggest, particularly as Newcastle suffered their heaviest defeat of the season when losing 3-0 at Villa Park in April.

Both sides have maintained the impetus built last season, sustained via unbeaten pre-season campaigns that included a 3-3 draw when the sides meet in a Philadelphia friendly.

That result may count for little in the grand scheme of things but Villa’s form under Emery overall and summer business makes them the value wager to avoid defeat.

Key stat

Only Brentford had more home draws than Newcastle's six among the Premier League's top ten last season.

Probable teams

Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Tonali, Bruno, Joelinton; Almiron, Isak, Gordon
Subs: Targett, Lascelles, Longstaff, Anderson, Barnes, Wilson, Murphy

Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Torres; Kamara, Luiz; Bailey, McGinn, Diaby; Watkins
Subs: Chambers, Digne, Tielemans, Coutinho, Archer, Philogene-Bidace, Revan

Inside info

Newcastle

Star man Bruno Guimaraes
Top scorer Callum Wilson
Penalty taker Alexander Isak
Card magnet Joelinton
Assist ace Kieran Trippier
Set-piece aerial threat Sven Botman

Aston Villa

Star man Ollie Watkins
Top scorer Ollie Watkins
Penalty taker Ollie Watkins
Card magnet John McGinn
Assist ace Douglas Luiz
Set-piece aerial threat Tyrone Mings

Newcastle v Aston Villa bet builder predictions

Most goals in the second half
Newcastle had a tendency to start fast at home last season, but that didn't necessarily lead to more goals and there was a trend for the second period of Magpies' games to feature more goals. In an opening-weekend encounter, it may take time for two sides with good attacking options to get up to speed.

Over four cards
Only three other sides received more yellow cards than Aston Villa's total of 80 last season, while Newcastle received at least two bookings in their last three home games. Andy Madley is in charge of this one and can bump up his average of 3.54 cards per game from last season if he adheres to the FA's new stricter guidelines.

Ollie Watkins - over 1.5 shots 
Ollie Watkins has thrived under Unai Emery and scored 13 league goals following his arrival. He averaged more than two shots per game and even against a good Newcastle defence, the openings should be there to try his luck.

Pays out at 9-2 with bet365

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport