Manchester United's forwards need to sharpen up with tougher fixtures ahead

Manchester United manager Ralf Rangnick again bemoaned his side's bad luck after they failed to score despite having 22 shots in last Saturday's 0-0 draw at home to Watford.

The German had made similar comments after recent Premier League draws against Burnley and Southampton as top-four hopefuls United dropped points in three of their last five matches.

A glance at the stats shows Rangnick has valid reasons to feel aggrieved. There is still room for improvement in United's performances but, based on the goalscoring opportunities they have been creating, they should have picked up more points than they have.

Manchester United's PL stats before and after Ralf Rangnick's appointment

FBref data, stats per 90 minutes

Under Rangnick's stewardship the Red Devils are creating chances worth nearly half an additional expected goal per game. They are level with Manchester City, and behind only Liverpool, in terms of consistently racking up at least two expected goals in games, something they have done 62 per cent of the time.

Despite this, United have scored fewer goals per game since Rangnick's arrival. Their conversion rate has dropped from the third-best in the division in the first half of the season to the worst in the top flight since then.

Having often got more than they deserved for much of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's reign, the opposite has been true since.

United were unconvincing in Rangnick's early Premier League games against Norwich, Newcastle and Wolves. However, since he jettisoned his 4-2-2-2 formation for a 4-3-3 set-up after the home defeat to Wolves the performances, and the numbers, should give United fans optimism.

They have posted at least two xG in each of their five games since the most recent international break, when the interim boss had more time to work with his players on the training ground.

That xG is enough to win most games but United scored only eight goals in those five games and four of those came against a struggling Leeds defence.

By simulating the probability of each of their chances based on their individual xG value, and repeating it 10,000 times, we can work out that the Red Devils could expect to score more than their eight actual goals 85 per cent of the time.

United's underlying process and build-up may be better under their German boss but there is a massive caveat in the fact that no Premier League side have faced an easier run of fixtures since he took over. West Ham, seventh in the points-per-game league table, are the toughest opponents Rangnick has faced.

A squad as expensively assembled as United's should be racking up the chances during a schedule that soft, whoever the manager is.

While they have created more big chances during their good spells in matches, they have regularly struggled to maintain their intensity for more than 45 to 60 minutes in games. When United lose the legs to defend from the front there have still been periods where they have looked shaky and overrun in midfield.

Cristiano Ronaldo has been responsible for a lot of their best moments in the Champions League this season but he has scored just once in his last eight league appearances and doesn't offer much in terms of pressing and occupying opposing centre-backs to make up for his cold spell in front of goal.

Ronaldo, like United as a unit, will almost certainly convert chances at a higher rate from now on as natural variance kicks in. However, they are unlikely to create those chances in quite the same quantity as the fixtures get much tougher in the coming month.

Wastefulness has seen Rangnick's men fritter away points against several of the Premier League's middle- and lower-ranked sides and their path to a top-four finish now leaves them little margin for error against the division's leading lights.

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