Liverpool's woes and Newcastle improvement sets up fascinating top-four race

Any hopes that Liverpool's Premier League win against Manchester City on October 16 would spark them into title-contending form have been dashed by back-to-back defeats against Nottingham Forest and Leeds, both of whom kicked off those games in the relegation zone.

Liverpool trail Tottenham, their opponents on Sunday, by ten points and oddsmakers reckon they are in a battle with Spurs, Chelsea, Manchester United and rapidly improving Newcastle for the two Champions League spots behind Manchester City and Arsenal.

Sporting Index have the Reds chalked up for 69 points this season, the same as Chelsea and Manchester United, one behind Tottenham, and a whopping 17 fewer than their ante-post quote.

Having picked up just 16 points in their opening 12 games – 1.33 points per game – Liverpool would need to win 25 of their remaining 26 fixtures and draw the other one to match last season's tally of 92. To reach the 70-point barrier that the market suggests will be needed for a top-four finish, they need to accumulate 54 more points at a rate of 2.08 per game.

They have proved themselves capable of that kind of run in recent seasons and the win against champions City shows they can still pull out top-level performances. The question is whether they can do it every three or four days, which is what this term's congested schedule requires.

The bad luck with injuries which has hampered Liverpool this season may burn their rivals in the second half of 2022-23 but Jurgen Klopp's men must find ways to grind out results when they fall below their maximum level of intensity.

They tend to be too open, too often on their off days, allowing 1.5 or more expected goals in half of their games – a stat exceeded only by Everton, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest.

Liverpool remain vulnerable in transition, which is an area in which Spurs can take advantage this weekend. At their current rate, Antonio Conte's side are on course for 76 points but the market does not believe they can sustain that pace and they are 11-10 for the top four, from 8-11 pre-season.

Tottenham do not exert control over games as well as the other top sides, ranking 16th in 'field tilt', which measures the territorial dominance of teams in terms of the percentage of touches they have in the attacking third compared to those they allow in their own defensive third.

Despite conceding territory, Spurs get more big chances than they allow but their style of play leaves them more exposed to hot and cold streaks.

They are heavily reliant on the form and fitness of the players who make a difference in both penalty boxes, so they have been hurt by injuries to Dejan Kulusevski and Richarlison, and also by goalkeeper Hugo Lloris's recent errors.

Few observers had Arsenal nailed on for a top-four finish at the start of the season but the Gunners' performances have seen them open a sizeable buffer.

Chelsea, out to 7-5 for the top four, will hope to eat into that advantage at Stamford Bridge on Sunday although the Blues' initial upturn under new manager Graham Potter has petered out.

Last season's problems remain as they struggle to turn possession into clear chances and cope with the absence through injury of influential wing-back Reece James.

The top-four outlook is further muddied by the improvement at Manchester United and Newcastle. The Red Devils' underlying numbers don't look strong but they have put points on the board at a top-four pace despite playing the toughest schedule of the contenders.

United are a side on the up since their horror start under Erik ten Hag and they have conceded just one open-play goal in five games since midfielder Casemiro came into the starting 11.

Ten Hag's side are yet to play five of the current bottom seven so they need to prove they have the firepower to break down opponents who sit deep, which hasn't always been the case in recent seasons.

Newcastle's emergence on the scene is fully justified based on their performances and data. The perceived wisdom is that they lack the squad depth to sustain a top-four challenge but the absence of midweek European exertions has been a major leveller in their favour in terms of game planning and energy expended.

With so many teams in the mix, the combination of luck, schedule and injuries will be more significant than normal, so the margins between what fans, club owners and pundits will regard as success and disaster could be razor-thin.

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