Kevin Pullein: Leicester unlikely to corner West Ham

Back West Ham to take at least as many corners as Leicester in their Premier League match at the London Stadium. The odds seem a bit too big for the sort of contest it seems reasonable to anticipate.

With bet365, back West Ham +0.5 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 1.9 – equivalent to fractional odds of 9-10. The bet will payout if West Ham take as many or more corners than Leicester.

Leicester have sparked up since Brendan Rodgers became manager. They have won four games out of six and probably did not deserve to lose the other two.

Rodgers likes his teams to have the ball and attack. He did at Celtic, he did at Liverpool and he did at Swansea. But West Ham manager Manuel Pellegrini is hardly an advocate of the alternative.

West Ham can look back on a solid season, and they deserved more than they got last Saturday in a defeat at Manchester United. After 34 games West Ham are 11th with 42 points, four places and five points below Leicester.

The score-related markets for the match imply a 45 per cent chance of Leicester scoring each goal that is scored, and there is no obvious reason to think that implication is wrong by much if at all.

Usually there is a relationship between goals and corners, as you would expect. Both are occasional consequences of attacking. The corners bet, though, will pay out if West Ham take as many corners as Leicester as well as if they take more.

Over the last two decades in Premier League games with similar goals expectations the chance of the outsiders taking at least as many corners as the favourites was typically about 57 per cent. Decimal odds of 1.9 suggest less than a 53 per cent chance of a bet succeeding.

Rodgers’ teams have sometimes taken a larger share of corners than others with similar results – but not always. And even before he went to Leicester they had performed unusually well this season in corners markets away from home – but that could be an accidental occurrence.

And even after allowing for both tendencies it still seems arguable that the chance of West Ham taking as many or more corners than Leicester at the London Stadium may be better than bet365’s odds estimate.

Recommendation
West Ham +0.5 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.9 bet365

Thought for the week

Either Liverpool or Manchester City will win the Premier League. Both have been brilliant. One will feel immense joy, the other deep despair.

Here are some numbers that put into perspective how unlucky the runners-up will be. Unlucky to have been so good in a season when somebody else managed somehow to be even better.

This is the 24th Premier League season in which teams have played 38 games. In seven of the previous 23 the champions finished with fewer than the 83 points that City have after 33 games. In eight of the previous 23 the champions finished with fewer than the 85 points that Liverpool have after 34 games.

In round numbers, the points that City and Liverpool have already would have been enough to win the title in about one season out of every three.

Liverpool have scored 77 goals. With four games to play they already have more goals than the highest-scoring team in six of the previous 23 seasons. City have scored 86 goals. With five games to play they already have more goals than the highest-scoring team in 14 of the previous 23 seasons.

In roughly one season out of every four, therefore, the highest-scoring team finished with fewer goals than Liverpool have now. In approximately six seasons out of every ten the highest-scoring team racked up fewer goals than City have now.

Neither City nor Liverpool deserve to finish as low as second. One of them will.

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