Keeping possession and converting chances are vital for Graham Potter's Chelsea

There was much consternation among pundits in May 2019 when Brighton replaced Chris Hughton, who had got them promoted to the Premier League and had twice maintained their top-flight status, with the unproven Graham Potter.

Potter had been managing in the Swedish fourth tier just nine years earlier but his remarkable rise has now taken him to the dugout at Chelsea, champions of Europe in 2020-21.

The Stamford Bridge job comes with its own particular challenges but it is still instructive to look at the progress Brighton made under Potter.

The solid line in the accompanying graph charts the rolling average of points won by Brighton. It shows why, despite avoiding relegation, the Seagulls opted to part company with Hughton, having won only two of their final 18 games under the popular manager.

A tally of 41 points in both of Potter's first two seasons at the club represented a modest improvement – good enough to finish 15th and 16th.

However, those campaigns are much more impressive when taking into account the stylistic changes going on at Brighton, which would ultimately raise their ceiling much higher.

That change is apparent from the accompanying table, which shows the key and underlying stats in Hughton's and Potter's final full seasons at the Amex Stadium.

Last season's ninth-place finish was a triumph for Potter's possession-based approach as only Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea had more of the ball in games than Brighton.

Dominating possession allowed the Seagulls to exert more control territorially – they ranked in the top five for most touches in the attacking third and for fewest allowed in the defensive third – and saw them punch above their weight in terms of their Premier League defensive record.

Under Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea also prioritised keeping possession as a means to prevent the opposition scoring rather than taking as many risks as other top sides. In that respect Potter's style could be a good fit, without too much short-term upheaval, for the Blues.

Brighton were never prolific under Potter, partly due to their much-publicised finishing woes and they were not ranked higher than 17th in conversion rate in any of his three full seasons. The dotted line in the graph shows how that lack of ruthlessness kept their points tally below their expected points based on chance creation.

Potter will hope to improve that conversion rate now that he has better players at his disposal but the onus will be on his side to seize the initiative more often.

Slightly counterintuitively, last term Brighton had almost the same points-per-game average against top-half teams as they did against the bottom half, and their win rate of 44 per cent in home matches in which they went off at odds-on during Potter's tenure is significantly lower than the 55 per cent expected by their match odds.

The 47-year-old proved himself adaptable tactically, however, and it will be fascinating to see how he scales up his ideas to get the most out of one of the most valuable squads in Europe.

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