How have Premier League expectations changed since the start of the season?

Less than two months of this unique Premier League season have passed but already three clubs have new managers at the helm and other clubs’ prospects have shifted notably from pre-season expectations.

The first two columns of the table below compares each team’s projected points tally at the start of the season, based on the spread betting firms’ total points markets, and how much expectations have already altered.

Leicester, who have lost their last six matches to pile the pressure on boss Brendan Rodgers, are the side with the biggest adjustment. Results and performances have seen their expected points total fall by 13 points, enough to see their prospects drop by nine places from a predicted top-half side to potential relegation candidates.

The Foxes’ underlying numbers have been a cause for concern for some time, though. Last season, Understat ranked them only 15th in terms of expected points and only Leeds allowed chances worth more expected goals of the 17 sides who remained in the division.

It was hoped better luck with injuries would raise their level but Wesley Fofana’s protracted departure left a cloud hanging over Leicester both on and off the pitch.

Kasper Schmeichel also left and replacement goalkeeper Danny Ward has conceded 22 times in just seven matches. His concerning early-season form, combined with clinical finishing from their opponents, means Leicester have conceded more than double the amount of goals they would ordinarily have been expected to given the quality of their opponents’ chances – 22 from an xG of 10.8.

However, the table also shows Leicester have had one of the toughest runs of fixtures. Four of their seven matches have been against big-six clubs and their postponed game would have been against Aston Villa, who were under a similar level of pressure at the time.

It will be of some solace to Rodgers that their first five matches following the international break represent one of the easiest schedules.

A side containing quality players such as James Maddison and Harvey Barnes should be too good to go down, and they have still been creating chances and scoring at a reasonable rate, which will give them chances to pick up wins – but only if something changes at the back and basic errors are cut out.

The Foxes’ regression coupled with slow starts from West Ham and Aston Villa has seen the projected points tally required for a top-half finish fall from 51 to 46. The congested bottom half has moved more teams within potential striking distance of the drop zone, which could be significant given this season, more than any other, is likely to be affected by teams suffering schedule-related injuries.

Fulham’s form has also helped raise the relegation bar, boosting their pre-season projection by six points and five places. They’ve banked 11 points while ticking off visits to Arsenal and Tottenham and picked up a point against Liverpool.

That’s more than they would have been chalked up for at the start, and 12 goals is a healthy return even if it is boosted by hot finishing (xG 8.7) and a fortuitous winning own goal against Brighton.

The spread firms reckon the gap between the big six and the rest has grown slightly, and it will be interesting to see if that maintains as European commitments ramp up.

The biggest beneficiaries so far have been Arsenal who’ve strengthened their top-four aspirations with six wins from seven games. They’ve had favourable fixtures, albeit not as much as their north London rivals Tottenham, whose game against Manchester City was postponed.

The Gunners lost their only game against a side projected to finish higher than ninth – Manchester United – but being foot perfect aside from that blip is impressive.

The sample sizes are still small but their xG difference per game against non-big six sides is +1.32, which is bettered by only Manchester City (+1.73), so they have been more dominant against the lesser lights than their top-four rivals.

The stats confirm the general impression that the Gunners have gone up a level this term but fixtures against Tottenham and Liverpool after the international break will test their title credentials and that theory further.

The fixtures come thick and fast in October with most sides bar Arsenal and Manchester City due to play six times.

Fortunes and the mood around teams could change quickly, and the final column of the table ranks the difficulty of each club's fixtures to the end of October.

We’ve touched on how things get easier for Leicester, while conversely Manchester United will have their recent resurgence tested by a Manchester derby and games against Spurs and Chelsea, as well as their ongoing Europa League commitments.

New Brighton manager Roberto de Zerbi faces a baptism of fire with four of his first six fixtures coming against big-six opposition.

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