Gabriel Jesus's Golden Boot odds: Can the Arsenal man justify pre-season hype?

Arsenal unveiled Gabriel Jesus in a dramatic photoshoot that featured the Brazil striker looking down over the Emirates Stadium with his arms outstretched like the iconic statue of Christ the Redeemer in Rio de Janeiro.

Rival fans will no doubt remind Gunners supporters of that grandiose imagery if Jesus turns out to be the new Francis Jeffers but, for now at least, there is plenty of confidence in the £45million signing from Manchester City.

He struck within 90 seconds of coming on as a substitute in his first pre-season fixture against Nuremberg, opened the scoring in a 4-0 win over Chelsea in Florida, and claimed a hat-trick in last weekend's 6-0 rout of Sevilla at the Emirates.

It would be foolish to read too much into pre-season performances – after all, Yaya Sanogo once scored four goals for Arsenal in an Emirates Cup game – but punters are backing Jesus to continue his fine form once the serious business starts.

His Premier League Golden Boot odds have collapsed from 33-1 to 12-1 and bet365 slashed him from 9-1 to 9-4 to reach 20 league goals in his first campaign for the Gunners.

Those market moves are indicative of Jesus's role as the undisputed first-choice centre-forward at Arsenal – not a status he ever enjoyed at City.

He scored 95 goals in five-and-a-half years in Manchester but 85 of his 236 appearances were as a substitute and he can expect more playing time and more responsibility at Arsenal.

At 25, he is a senior member of a youthful attacking unit that includes Bukayo Saka, Emile Smith Rowe, Gabriel Martinelli and 23-year-old club captain Martin Odegaard.

The Gunners played some sparkling football at times last season but centre-forward was a problem position as Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Alexandre Lacazette and Eddie Nketiah scored just 13 league goals in a combined 65 appearances.

Lacazette and Aubameyang, who fell out with manager Mikel Arteta before leaving for Barcelona in January, both underperformed significantly on the expected-goals metric although the underlying stats may also be a concern for Jesus Golden Boot backers.

According to Understat.com, his goal tally fell short of his xG in all six Premier League campaigns at City and his 58 league goals came from an xG of 76.

Gabriel Jesus's Premier League xG record

Expected-goals (xG) stats from understat.com

Arteta will hope that starting regularly will help Jesus develop into a more ruthless finisher and the Brazilian is 11-2 with Betfair and Paddy Power to score the first goal of the new season at Crystal Palace on Friday.

The official Fantasy Premier League tweeted this week that Jesus is the most popular pick in the game's history, having been selected by 71.5 per cent of players. With Arsenal fans, Golden Boot punters and fantasy-football managers all expecting big things from the Brazilian, now is the time for Jesus to reward that faith.

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