Gabriel Jesus's attacking output will be difficult for Mikel Arteta to replace

Premier League leaders Arsenal have won 12 of 14 league games this season, and, despite not scoring in his last six appearances, £45million summer signing Gabriel Jesus’s all-round game has been instrumental in elevating the Gunners' threat in the final third compared to last season.

However, the knee ligament injury he sustained at the World Cup looks like ruling him out for three months, so what will they miss?

Arsenal were criticised last term for lacking incisiveness and having a lot of stale possession. But Jesus’s movement and control in tight spaces has allowed Mikel Arteta’s side to get into dangerous areas with greater regularity. He ranks first, ahead of Phil Foden and Mo Salah, for most progressive passes received in the top flight, and is also top for touches in the attacking penalty area, ahead of Salah and Erling Haaland.

The Brazilian is also a big contributor to their pressing game, all of which adds up to Arsenal spending more time in areas where they can hurt opponents, and their goals-per-game record has risen to 2.4 from 1.6 last season.

Gabriel Jesus in the Premier League this season

Jesus has scored only five of the Gunners' 33 league goals and long-standing doubts about his finishing remain. His non-penalty expected goals figure is 7.7 (second only to Haaland), so he’s one of the biggest underperformers, but the constant movement and probing to get into scoring positions drags opposition defences out of shape and allows space for Arsenal’s other attackers to exploit. And he combines well with those attackers, ranking in the top tier of the chance creation stats.

Jesus ranks second behind Haaland with 10.6 combined non-penalty expected goals (xG) and xG assisted, but the Gunners are no one-man-band as Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Martinelli are also in the top ten. That’s testament to Arteta’s system and the continued improvement of talented young players.

Producing output at that level is testament to their skill, but also to their availability, and Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester United, all of whom have suffered significantly worse injury luck than the Gunners, won’t shed too many tears that their squad depth will be tested to a greater extent.

Eddie Nketiah is likely to fill the void initially having started the final eight league games for Arsenal last season, scoring five times. It’s a sample of games that included wins over Chelsea and Manchester United, before their top-four hopes were ended with defeats to Tottenham and Newcastle. As the table shows, their numbers were slightly better with Nketiah leading the line compared to Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette.

Clearly, the whole team dynamic is better this term and bookmakers have left Arsenal’s title odds unchanged at 5-2 despite Jesus’s injury. It’s a reflection that they may enter the transfer market, but also that, ultimately, the bookies still see a close title race as requiring a drop-off from Manchester City’s proven long-term levels.

Arsenal last season versus this season

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