Chelsea attack may be finding its range in time for meeting with leaky Liverpool

Liverpool and Chelsea have each won the Champions League in the last four years but they are drinking in the last-chance saloon if they wish to retain any hope of securing a place in next season's edition via a top-four Premier League finish.

Liverpool are 23-10 and Chelsea 11-1 to claim a top-four berth heading into this weekend’s clash at Anfield, which pits the Reds’ brittle defence against the Blues’ blunt attack.

The scattergraph below shows how having been near the top of the class last season both languish in mid-division in terms of performance this time around.

Liverpool and Chelsea have suffered far worse injury problems than most and while that’s a factor, they have expensively assembled and deep squads which should be capable of better results and performances.

Something has to give at Anfield on Saturday. Chelsea are struggling to open up opponents and turn possession and territory into decent chances, while Liverpool are being passed through far too easily and haemorrhaging big chances on a regular basis.

Chelsea were ranked clear third in most attacking metrics in 2021-22 but have dropped to mid-table this season.

The Blues still have a relatively high proportion of the ball in the attacking third, ranking behind only Manchester City and Arsenal, but lack the sharp passing and movement in behind to create clear chances - as a meagre average of 8.3 shots per game in the opposition box shows.

It’s worth noting their decline started towards the end of last season with former boss Thomas Tuchel and current gaffer Graham Potter favouring controlled possession and less risk-taking than other top sides.

Constant changes to their team selection hasn’t helped create the fluidity of interchanges needed to consistently pull defences out of position, and they probably have too many similar players.

However, there were some promising signs of added impetus with recent loanee Joao Felix in the line-up at Fulham last Thursday.

Despite playing more than a third of the game with ten men after Felix's red card, Chelsea posted their highest expected-goals-created figure of the season. The 20 shots they mustered at Craven Cottage was their joint-highest tally of the campaign and they followed it with 15 in Sunday’s 1-0 win over Crystal Palace - the first time they posted 15 or more shots in consecutive league matches this season.

Chelsea will get more space to pick their passes against Liverpool at Anfield.

The Reds have always been high risk, high reward under Jurgen Klopp, but with their pressing game having less of an effect less often, the relative rewards have been scarce compared to the ease of which their high defensive line is breached.

Liverpool always exposed Allison to harder than average shots but he’s having to face more of them - an extra 2.6 shots in the box per game - due to the ease at which the Reds can be carved open from relatively few passes allowed into their defensive third.

The spread betting firms still believe Liverpool will pick up the second-highest amount of points from now until the end of the season, so there is clearly faith that the Reds will improve significantly.

Restoring physicality to their midfield would be the best way to do that, but having replenished their forward line in recent transfer windows it looks like that area will be addressed in the summer.

However, it will be harder to snap up their first-choice targets without the lure of Champions League football and that's why Saturday's clash is such a pivotal game.

Another possibility would be Klopp compromising his ideals for a slightly more pragmatic approach.

It might limit their potential to recreate runs of exceptional form seen in previous seasons, but given compacted schedule of this term it could raise the floor by stemming the bleeding at the back.

Liverpool clearly possess more talent than their current results are showing - the Reds' attacking numbers are still among the best - but you can’t pick up victories on a consistent basis if you concede twice each game.

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