Casemiro's influence and Arsenal's improvement set up fascinating derby clashes

Manchester United host Manchester City in the Premier League on Saturday before leaders Arsenal make the short trip to Tottenham on Sunday and we've been looking into some potentially significant trends for derby punters to consider.

Manchester United

Erik ten Hag's side have won 15 of 18 matches in all competitions since being crushed 6-3 in the first Manchester derby of the season and they could get within a point of their noisy neighbours with a win at Old Trafford on Saturday.

City ended a four-game winning streak for United in the league with that mauling at the Etihad on October 2, after which Ten Hag said his side had "lacked belief". As the table below shows, confidence shouldn't be an issue for United now.

There have been individual and collective improvements across the board as they continue to adapt to their manager's demands but the biggest level-raiser has been the introduction of Casemiro as a regular starter in midfield, the team's biggest area of need.

The Brazilian's arrival has coincided with a softer run of games but United have looked a genuine top-four side during that spell, outplaying the lower-ranked opponents by a greater margin than those they faced earlier in the season.

The biggest improvement has been in their defensive numbers, which is unsurprising given Casemiro's reputation for protecting his backline. However, he has also been better on the ball than might have been expected, helping reduce the number of chances allowed through turnovers and instigating attacks.

There have been plenty of false dawns for United in recent years but the process under Ten Hag looks better. Progress isn't linear, however, and while they are currently on a particularly hot run within a general upward trend, there will be setbacks too.

They suffered some heavy defeats earlier in the campaign and Arsenal's chastening experience in previous seasons is perhaps a useful guide for the ups and downs that will occur as a team tries to install the style of play that Ten Hag wants.

The Dutchman doesn't have all the pieces yet, but as long as United can keep Casemiro healthy, the Brazilian will be a key part of the puzzle that they didn't have at the start of the season.

Manchester City

It is hard to nitpick when it comes to the Citizens, such has been their exemplary performance levels under Pep Guardiola, but with Racing Post colleague Kevin Pullein putting their attack under the microscope in his column this week, let's look at their defence.

It's a unit that has conceded 16 goals in 17 games, which is great by most teams' standards, but the only two times Guardiola's City have been breached at that rate were the two occasions under him that they didn't end up as champions: his first season in 2016-17, and when Liverpool claimed the title in 2019-20.

There were some concerns earlier in the season that City were more vulnerable to counters than in previous years but a glance at their underlying stats suggests it is probably more a case of negative variance with opponents being more clinical than usual.

Aston Villa and Everton, for example, scored with their only shots on target in their 1-1 draws with the Citizens. That can happen but if City keep their underlying numbers at a similar level they should benefit from a bit of positive regression to the mean.

Their 16 goals conceded (including one own goal) came from an xGA of 12.7. Opponents will probably take chances slightly less emphatically from hereon but the points dropped by City so far have lowered their sights making it more likely that they achieve a points total in the mid-to-high 80s rather than the mid-90s. That makes them less unassailable in the title race, although the good news for Pep's men is that Saturday's opponents Manchester United rank below average in terms of chance conversion.

Tottenham

Spurs ended a seven-game Premier League streak of conceding the opening goal at Crystal Palace last time out, surviving a rocky spell before half-time before scoring four times in the second half.

The disparity between their first-half and second-half performances has become a running joke, and it's easy to see why.

They are the best 'second-half team' in the division, winning the second period in 12 of their 18 games (two draws, four losses) while sitting only 12th in the first-half table with just five wins (seven draws, six losses).

They've been outscored 13-10 in the first half but are mighty after the break, outgunning opponents 27-12 – the greatest margin in the division. The skew of scoring 73 per cent of their goals after the interval is easily clear of the next-highest team, Everton at 64 per cent, and is the greatest proportion going back nine seasons.

Game state plays a part in this trend as Tottenham are chasing the game more often than the other top sides.

Their xG difference, according to Understat.com, when games are level is only seventh best and that will have to improve as you can't keep relying on second-half comebacks.

Their success in the second half of last season was built on getting a lead and unleashing their devastating counter-attack so this season's levels of passiveness cannot be by design.

Spurs continue to allow opponents relatively few 'big' chances, boasting the lowest opposition non-penalty xG per shot, but they rank 19th for shots allowed in the first half. If you allow that many shots, some of them will inevitably go in, especially with goalkeeper Hugo Lloris making more mistakes than he has previously.

The good news is that they have still banked a decent points haul and there is a clear potential for improvement should Lloris and Heung-Min Son return to something like their previous levels of eliteness in both penalty boxes.

The return to fitness of key performer Dejan Kulusevski is another positive and this weekend, against an Arsenal side who have conceded only four first-half goals, would be a good time for a strong start from Spurs.

Arsenal

The Gunners have spent the 2022-23 campaign answering various questions posed by their doubters. Is manager Mikel Arteta good enough? Can they keep up their early-season pace? Can they beat the big teams? And can they cope without the injured Gabriel Jesus?

So far Arsenal's responses have been emphatic but this weekend's trip to Tottenham throws up yet another question: can they improve their recent woes at the home of their fiercest rivals?

Their sole league win at Spurs since 2010 came under Arsene Wenger in the 2013-14 season, and the recent picture is bleak as they have lost six of the last eight by an aggregate score of 15-5. Harry Kane has been the Gunners' chief tormentor in that time with nine goals.

Arsenal's most recent disappointing trip to Tottenham was a 3-0 defeat three games from the end of last season, which appeared to land the telling psychological blow in the two clubs' tussle for a top-four place.

Arsenal, and Arteta in particular, were perhaps harshly accused by some of losing their composure in the second half of their recent 0-0 draw with Newcastle.

As they were last season, the Gunners are the youngest side in the division and it is vital that they do a better job holding their nerve in the cauldron that awaits them at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Rob Holding's 33rd-minute red card last term was Arsenal's third dismissal in their last seven outings at Spurs and they have also conceded three penalties. Discipline matters.

Having finished below Spurs for the past six seasons, league leaders Arsenal look the stronger team this time around, and they have the style required to quieten the Tottenham crowd by keeping possession in the opposition half.

Arsenal are below only Manchester City in field tilt, a metric measuring the proportion of touches taken in the opponents' final third compared to those allowed in their own. Spurs are 13th in the same metric.

If the Gunners can avoid a sucker punch on the counter on Sunday then they may well silence even more of their critics this weekend.

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