Brighton and Arsenal may struggle to stand firm

Premier League
Sky One, Premier League & Main Event, 5.15pm Wednesday

Defensive issues at both ends of the pitch lead to the conclusion that Arsenal’s trip to Brighton could well produce a hatful of goals.

Goals are plentiful in Arsenal’s games anyway – their matches average over 3.5 goals per game and away from home that number rockets to 4.2.

We know all about their firepower but we also know that Unai Emery has got a fair old defensive headache to address and that gives Albion a chance of striking in a game which promises to be an entertaining and open contest.

The Gunners are odds-on to follow up Saturday’s 3-1 win over Burnley with another success to keep them firmly in the top-four mix.

• Premier League standings

The Clarets struggled to trouble Arsenal until makeshift centre-back Nacho Monreal limped out of the fray. A week before Granit Xhaka had lined up in the heart of the back four at Southampton, where Arsenal sustained a dispiriting 3-2 loss.

Emery expects to be able to call upon Laurent Koscielny and Sokratis although that’s hardly a central defensive pairing you’d invest a lot of faith in, even when fully fit, and Brighton know they will be able to fluster the visitors.

A punt on over 3.5 goals at 2-1 looks a wise move, especially because Albion are also missing a massive player in their defensive mix.

Lewis Dunk, the rock at the heart of their backline, was sent off in Saturday’s weak loss at Bournemouth and is suspended, a ban that at least coincides with Shane Duffy returning from his own suspension.

It means Duffy and Leon Balogun get to pair up in front of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and the other assorted array of attacking aces who Emery can call upon to test the hosts’ resolve.

Duffy will be given a serious working test but he can also be a threat at the other end and the 35-1 that he scores first is a decent each-way price given the likelihood of the match producing a few goals. The Irishman has popped in three this season and Arsenal look susceptible at set-plays.

Brighton are a 9-2 chance in 90-minute betting and beat the Gunners 2-1 at home in March.

However, they are on a run of three straight losses and have won only two of their last eight, both against bottom-half opponents. The Seagulls have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last eight. They’ve also, quirkily, not won any of their last nine fixtures played on Boxing Day.

Recommendations
Over 3.5 goals
2pts 2-1 Betfair
S Duffy first scorer
1pt e-w 35-1 Paddy Power

Bet on this match at Soccerbase.com

Team news

Brighton
Lewis Dunk is suspended though defensive partner Shane Duffy returns from a ban. Jose Izquierdo is crocked.

Arsenal
Defenders Rob Holding (knee), Konstantinos Mavropanos (groin), Nacho Monreal (muscular) and Hector Bellerin (calf) are definitely out. Henrikh Mkhitaryan has been ruled out for up to six weeks with a metatarsal injury. Shkodran Mustafi (hamstring) is a doubt.

Key stat
Arsenal’s eight away matches have produced 35 goals at 4.3 per game.

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