Bournemouth and Watford are moving in very different directions

Sunday’s relegation six-pointer between Bournemouth and Watford features two sides separated by just one point in the Premier League table but enjoying drastically contrasting recent fortunes.

The graph tracks the approximate chances of staying up based on their changing relegation odds and having started the season similarly priced for the drop (Bournemouth 4-1, Watford 5-1) they both went into this weekend at 13-10 to be relegated.

For Watford that represents a rapid recovery as just five games ago, rooted to the bottom of the table following a 2-0 loss to Liverpool in Nigel Pearson’s first game as manager, they were written off as 1-4 chances to go down.

A run of just one win in their opening 17 games saw them stranded six points from safety and ten points behind Bournemouth, but they have picked up ten points in their last four games.

Bournemouth in contrast have slumped from seventh following a 1-0 win over Manchester United two months ago, after which they drifted to 11-1 for relegation.

Eddie Howe’s side have since won only one of ten games and suffered damaging recent defeats to potential relegation rivals Brighton and West Ham in their last two league games.

The expected goal difference tallies tell a similar story.

Fbref.com have Bournemouth’s xG difference at minus 9.6 for the season, plummeting in recent weeks from minus 1.6 after that win over United.

• Bournemouth v Watford preview and tip

Watford’s xG difference of minus 9.8 in contrast has stabilised having been minus 10.2 following their 2-0 loss to Leicester on matchday 15, suggesting some of their improvement started before Pearson’s arrival.

The Hornets recent revival under their new boss can in some part be explained by better fortune and efficiency in front of goal.

Before Pearson’s arrival, if we exclude penalties, they scored a dismal seven goals in 16 games, an average of just 0.44 goals per game, significantly underperforming their non-penalty expected goals figure of 1.03 goals per game.

In the five games under Pearson, they have created a similar level of chances, with a non-penalty expected goals figure of 1.04, but have converted those chances into six goals (excluding penalties), now slightly overachieving what we would anticipate, at a rate of 1.2 goals per game.

Bournemouth’s slump has been characterised by a worrying dip in their attacking output.

In their last seven games they are creating chances worth an average of just 0.5 expected goals per game (falling from an average of 1.3 xG per game prior to the November international break).

Particularly alarming is the fact that they could muster a combined total of just four shots on target in three games against West Ham, Brighton and Burnley over the festive period.

After playing Watford they face Norwich, Brighton, Aston Villa, Sheffield United and Burnley so it is vital they find an immediate way to reverse this decline.

They have a difficult run-in with their final 11 games featuring eight games against sides currently in the top half and the Cherries will be ripe for relegation unless performances improve quickly.

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