Aston Villa v Southampton predictions: Saints can pick up at least a point

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Aston Villa v Southampton in the Premier League on Friday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event & Premier League, 8pm Friday

Best bet

Southampton or draw double chance
2pts 3-4 BoyleSports, Coral & Hills

Team news

Aston Villa
Diego Carlos is a long-term absentee while Matty Cash is missing with a hamstring injury. Jan Bednarek is ineligible to face his parent club. Emi Martinez and Ollie Watkins (both illness) are expected to play.

Southampton
Valentino Livramento and Romeo Lavia are sidelined through injury.

Match preview

Steven Gerrard hopes the 1-1 draw with Manchester City can be a springboard to move up the Premier League table but the external noise could be ringing louder than ever following another setback against Southampton.

The heat is already on Gerrard to transform Villa’s fortunes and although a point at home to the champions may have silenced his critics in the short-term, failing to beat Southampton could see the pressure all piled back on.

The Villans had looked well equipped to push on under Gerrard and build on last season’s 14th-place finish, but after six games they find themselves outside the relegation places on just goal difference.

It's still early days and things can change quickly but their only victory this season came against Everton, who are one of just two teams in the Premier League yet to record a success.

Villa have also suffered defeats at Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, as well as losing 1-0 at home to another slow starter in West Ham, meaning they have now won only three of their 17 top-flight matches since the beginning of March.

That should be enough to steer clear of them at a shade above even-money, especially with defensive question marks to answer in the absence of big money signing Diego Carlos.

Villa have conceded in all six league games, shipping ten goals in total, and at present their attacking talents are not performing well enough to cancel out their defensive deficiencies.

Gerrard’s side have scored just five goals - all coming from different players - and even in the recent draw with City Leon Bailey’s equaliser came from their only shot on target.

They have managed only 56 shots across their six games, a total that betters only Bournemouth in the Premier League this term and some 15 shots worse than their opponents Southampton.

And although that isn't always conclusive, it is a good guide and shows Villa are flattering to deceive given the attacking talent they possess.

Even so, the Saints have made a solid start to the season and have recorded wins over Leicester and Chelsea as well as coming from two goals down to snatch a point against Leeds.

Ralph Hasenhuttl’s men also deserved better in a 1-0 home defeat to Manchester United and appear to have assembled a deeper, more competitive squad than last year.

The injury to Romeo Lavia, one of their shrewd acquisitions from Manchester City, is a blow but they can play with more freedom than an under-pressure Villa while Che Adams and Adam Armstrong should get plenty of opportunities to breach what has been a shaky home defence.

Key stat

Aston Villa have won only three of their last 14 Premier League home games.

Inside info

Aston Villa

Penalty taker Ollie Watkins/Danny Ings
Assist ace Ollie Watkins
Set-piece aerial threat Tyrone Mings
Card magnet Douglas Luiz

Southampton

Penalty taker James Ward-Prowse
Assist ace James Ward-Prowse
Set-piece aerial threat Armel Bella-Kotchap
Card magnet Mohammed Salisu

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