Arsenal's controlled approach is working but beating big-six rivals is next step

Arsenal have suffered several setbacks during Mikel Arteta's reign but he has stuck to his principles and the natural evolution of his young team, coupled with the addition of key pieces to the puzzle in the summer transfer window, has seen them take a step forward this season.

Arteta wants his side, who host local rivals Tottenham on Saturday, to exercise control of games with precise positional and possession play. That approach explains why Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko –who, like Arteta, worked under Pep Guardiola at Manchester City – have fitted straight in.

Last season the Gunners were often accused of having too much 'stale' possession but summer signing Jesus has upgraded their final-third efficiency. He has excellent movement, tight control and the ability to find pockets of space, enabling Arsenal to progress the ball into dangerous areas more regularly. According to FBref data, no player has been on the receiving end of more progressive passes than Jesus this term.

The Brazilian forward adds a further cutting edge with his dribbling ability. Expected threat (xT) measures how much the actions of players increase their side's probability of scoring. According to Soccerment data, Jesus ranks second to Erling Haaland in xT added by carrying the ball while Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard is behind only Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold for xT added by passing.

The Gunners are benefiting from increased control of games with possession rising to 57 per cent, from 53 per cent last season, and from having the ball in more dangerous areas.

Their final-third touches have climbed to 207 per game, compared to 180 last term, and both of those areas of improvement also help them defensively.

Expected threat (xT) per game

Increase in probability of team scoring added through a player's passing and ball-carrying

1 Martin Odegaard 0.22
2 Kevin De Bruyne 0.21
3= Trent Alexander-Arnold 0.2
3= Dejan Kulusevski 0.2
5 Jordan Zemura 0.17
6 Gabriel Jesus 0.16
7 Youri Tielemans 0.15
8= Erling Haaland 0.14
8= Raheem Sterling 0.14
8= Gabriel Martinelli 0.14
8= Mohamed Salah 0.14

Premier League data from Soccerment.com (minimum five appearances)

Arsenal's positive start is not a huge shock given their softer-than-average set of fixtures but a haul of 18 points from seven matches is still a welcome surprise for the club's fans.

The best teams dominate and create more chances than their opponents to such a degree that it limits the role that luck in front of goal plays in the outcome of a match. Arsenal's expected goal difference per game against non-big six sides has risen from +0.91 last term, the fourth-best in the division, to +1.32 (second).

They have not dropped a point against non-big six clubs this season but their poor record against the other top teams was a major problem in 2021-22 as they lost seven of their ten fixtures against the Manchester clubs, Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs.

Arsenal's sole defeat this term came at Manchester United, so that remains a concern, along with their lack of squad depth. Ghana international Thomas Partey missed the Old Trafford clash and the balance he gives the Gunners' midfield is obvious. Since the beginning of last term they have picked up 2.2 points per game when Partey starts and 1.6 when he doesn't.

United caught Arsenal on the break a couple of times in that 3-1 win and Tottenham will look to replicate those tactics at the Emirates on Saturday.

Unlike Arsenal, Spurs cede control of games more often, but they compensate for that by being elite performers in both penalty boxes.

They have allowed the fourth-most shots in the Premier League but Antonio Conte's expertly-organised defence limits opponents to shots from the furthest distance on average.

The biggest challenge of Arsenal's increased effectiveness this term will be breaking down Spurs before they fall into Conte's trap and get caught on the counter.

United's win against the Gunners was their fourth in a row after a nightmare start to the season but they also face their toughest examination to date when they travel to Manchester City on Sunday.

New boss Erik ten Hag has made some compromises after they were the architects of their own downfall by giving away possession deep in their own half a number of times in opening defeats to Brighton and Brentford.

Goalkeeper David de Gea struggles to play out from the back and is now kicking long, particularly from goal-kicks, averaging 23.5 launched passes per game in United's last four matches – up from 8.5 in their first two losses.

Going long and relying on winning second balls lowers United's long-term ceiling but has raised the floor in the short term as they are no longer shooting themselves in the foot.

Ten Hag has also found a better balance in midfield. Christian Eriksen is playing deeper than he has previously, offering a technical quality in central midfield that United have lacked for some time.

The Dane's presence removes ball-progression responsibilities from Scott McTominay, who has struggled with that task before. Eriksen visibly tires in games but he has completed more than twice the amount of progressive passes that McTominay has, and provided United with a much-needed platform in recent games.

However, the margins in all four of United's league wins were close enough to suggest that, on another day, one or two could have ended in draws as they edged the cumulative xG only 5.7-5.0.

Wins over Liverpool and Arsenal certainly deserve praise but United benefited from favourable game state as they took the lead in both matches, enabling them to play increasingly on the counter - a successful tactic for them in big games under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

That suits Marcus Rashford, whose goals wrapped up both games, and he averages an impressive 0.45 goal involvements per game against big-six opponents with 19 goals and seven assists in 58 league appearances.

It remains to be seen how effective the Red Devils will be when they have to chase games, but the midfield balance, pressing structure and developing centre-back partnership between Lisandro Martinez and Raphael Varane have, on the face of it, made United appear less vulnerable than they did last season and at the start of this term.

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