Chorley v Derby predictions: free betting tips and where to watch

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for the FA Cup third-round tie between Chorley and Derby.

Where to watch

BT Sport 1, 12.15pm Saturday

Best bet

Over 3.5 goals
1pt 13-8 Betfred

Team news

Chorley
Ollie Shenton could return in midfield and Andy Halls may start in defence.

Derby
The Rams are fielding a mix of Under-18 and Under-23 players due to a Covid outbreak. Manager Wayne Rooney is also absent.

Match preview

A pep talk from Wayne Rooney to his Derby coaching staff wasn't enough to put the brakes on an almighty plunge on Chorley, and punters are convinced a junior Rams side will be overcome by Jamie Vermiglio's Magpies in the FA Cup.

Cup romantics love a shock on third-round weekend but it will be no surprise if Chorley of the National League North see off Derby, who are 83 places above them in the football pyramid.

Chorley have been backed in from 12-1 at the start of the week to around 11-8 as the full ramifications of the Covid crisis at Pride Park became clear.

The entire Derby first-team squad and boss Rooney himself are in isolation which leaves a gaggle of Under-18s and Under-23s heading to Lancashire under development coaches Pat Lyons and Gary Bowyer, who have been briefed by Rooney but have to fear the worst.

Derby's local paper gave their best guess for what the team will look like – and if they are right there is more Championship pedigree in the Chorley ranks than at the actual Championship club.

As Lyons says, it's Derby who are the underdogs.

There are one or two interesting names in the Derby development set-up. Jordan Brown has come off the first-team bench a couple of times, Isaac Hutchinson was a Southend regular and Bobby Duncan an England Under-19 starlet at Liverpool.

But against that Chorley's Adam Henley has been capped twice by Wales and played for Blackburn in the Premier League.

Chorley have already knocked out League One sides Wigan and Peterborough on their club-record run to round three and were the better side both times.

Cup ties can be hard to gauge at the best of times but this is a really tricky one, especially now that the value has been sucked out of Chorley, who have lost only one of their last ten league games.

Derby's average goals per game in their Under-23 league is 4.4 and it's 4.2 at Under-18 level. Both Chorley's cup ties to date have produced goals and this could follow suit.

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