Brighton v Grimsby predictions: Seagulls should reach last four with ease

Where to watch Brighton v Grimsby

BBC One, 2.15pm Sunday

Best bet

Brighton to win to nil
2pts 10-11 Paddy Power

Brighton v Grimsby odds

Brighton 1-8
Grimsby 22-1
Draw 17-2

Odds correct at time of publish

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Brighton v Grimsby team news

Brighton
Tariq Lamptey's knee injury will be assessed but Adam Lallana and Jakub Moder are ruled out

Grimsby
George Lloyd, Mikey O'Neill and Stephen Wearne are all cup-tied for the Mariners

Brighton v Grimsby predictions

It is 33 years since the last fourth-tier club made it through to the quarter-finals of the FA Cup and while Grimsby will dream that they can claim a last-four spot at Brighton's expense, it would be a massive shock if the Mariners head to Wembley next month.

Only four top-flight teams made it through to the quarter-finals this year and the Seagulls will be delighted to have earned what they would consider a plum draw against the lowest ranked team left in the competition.

Brighton completely merit their position as challengers for a European spot and they should be a good thing to make the semis.

Grimsby will be heartened by winning at Southampton in the last round, but the boost they got from that upset can only be taken so far.

The Saints, who are bottom of the Premier League having won just two of their 14 home games in the top flight this season, cannot be talked about in the same breath as the team a little further along the south coast.

It also has to be considered that two Gavan Holohan penalties proved to be the difference at St Mary's, so the League Two outfit benefited from a fair slice of good fortune as well.

Deeper analysis shows that the Mariners, mid-table in the Football League's basement division, have lost seven of their last ten league away games and they obviously come up against superior opposition here, even if Roberto de Zerbi elects to shuffle his pack.

A 1-0 win over Crystal Palace via Solly March's goal that eventually did for Eagles boss Patrick Vieira, was Brighton's fifth victory in their last six games and they were unfortunate not to take a perfect record from those matches after they were stung by a late Fulham goal having dominating their home clash with the Cottagers.

Conceding only 11 goals in 13 home league games is a decent record, and while Grimsby should play above themselves in a big occasion, cheered on by a huge visiting following, it is difficult to see them breaking though.

Often the most nerve-racking bet to have in this sort of potentially one-sided affair is to back the favourites to win to nil because you are never over the line until the final whistle. 

But Brighton are likely to dominate the ball and given that they enjoy a comfortable league position that does not require the resting of players, they should get through with their clean sheet intact.

Key stat

Brighton have lost three of their last 20 FA Cup home matches

Probable teams

Brighton (4-2-3-1): Steele; Veltman, Dunk, Webster, Estupinan; Gross, Caicedo; Sarmiento, Mac Allister, Mitoma; Ferguson.
Subs: Welbeck, Hinshelwood, Enciso, March, Lamptey, Undav, Colwill

Grimsby (3-4-3): Crocombe; Smith, Waterfall, Maher; Efete, Holohan, Hunt, Driscoll-Glennon; Clifton, Orsi, McAtee
Subs: Khan, Pearson, Green, Khouri, Amos, Morris, Scannell

Inside info

Brighton

Penalty taker Alexis Mac Allister
Assist ace Solly March
Set-piece aerial threat Lewis Dunk
Card magnet Moises Caicedo

Grimsby

Penalty taker Gavan Holohan
Assist ace John McAtee
Set-piece aerial threat Luke Waterfall
Card magnet Luke Waterfall

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