Arsenal v Newcastle predictions: free betting tips and where to watch

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for the FA Cup third-round tie between Arsenal and Newcastle.

Where to watch

BBC1, 5.30pm Saturday

Best bet

Arsenal & under 3.5 goals
1pt 11-8 Betway

Team news

Arsenal
Thomas Partey has recovered from a thigh injury. Gabriel is unlikely to be involved.

Newcastle
Allan Saint-Maximin is out but Jamaal Lascelles and Ryan Fraser are back in training. Isaac Hayden is available after suspension.

Match preview

Mikel Arteta has vowed to throw everything at Arsenal's pursuit of yet more FA Cup glory - and that spells trouble for Steve Bruce.

Five months after beating Chelsea at Wembley to win the competition for a record-extending 14th time – and for a fourth time in the last seven seasons – the Gunners begin their defence at home to Newcastle.

And while they could have been luckier with the draw, if they had to have been paired with a top-flight opponent at this stage of proceedings it probably would be Newcastle, who they have beaten in 14 of their last 15 encounters.

Arsenal go into the tie with renewed confidence following three straight Premier League successes and given the likelihood that Bruce will make a load of changes to his side, the home side really should have nothing to fear.

A hammering, however, looks far less likely. Arsenal are undoubtedly improving but they won't be at full strength either. And Newcastle tend not to get rolled over by the big boys – they staff the barricades better than most clubs – so a Gunners' win and under 3.5 goals looks a decent play at 11-8. Just one of Newcastle's last 12 matches has produced more than three goals.

Bruce has to rest players. This is their eighth game in 28 days and they play again at Sheffield United in the Premier League on Tuesday evening.

And their position in the Premier League will be critical in Bruce's thinking, as even though their performances have improved of late they are still without a win in five and have dropped to 16th in the table.

After poor efforts against Leeds and ten-man Fulham they would have feared the worse against Manchester City, Liverpool and Leicester. And while one point out of nine from those games might not amount to much, there was impressive resolve.

The problems are the usual ones – in the 2-1 defeat by Leicester, Kasper Schmeichel didn't have a save to make until Andy Carroll's consolation goal flew past him in the 82nd minute.

Arsenal's schedule has been every bit as hectic as Newcastle's – they've had Europa League commitments as well – but their squad looks deeper than United's and they don't play again until Thursday.

Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Joe Willock and Eddie Nketiah will almost certainly get their customary cup run-outs but they are more than bit-part players - Nketiah has started 12 matches this season, which is 12 more than Mesut Ozil.

Arsenal have enough depth, class and confidence to get the job done but it may not be by much.

Key stat

Over the last 12 months Arsenal have won 14 of their 17 cup ties.

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