Newport County v Forest Green predictions: Exiles should exploit home advantage

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Tuesday's League Two playoff semi-final first leg between Newport County and Forest Green.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Football, 8.15pm Tuesday

Best bet

Newport to win to nil
1pt 11-4 bet365, Betfred, Betway

Team news

Newport County
Goalkeeper Tom King should keep his place in the 11. Michael Flynn has no fresh injury concerns.

Forest Green
Ebou Adams is suspended for the first leg after his red card against Tranmere. Jamille Matt and Nicky Cadden are doubts.

Match preview

Only goal difference separated Newport County and Forest Green after both clubs won 20, drew 13 and lost 13 of their 46 regular-season matches in League Two.

Bookmakers expect the playoff semi-final between the pair to be just as tight with Rovers 10-11 to qualify and the Exiles a best-priced evens to reach the final.

If Newport are to prevail then they cannot afford a repeat of February's 2-0 home defeat to Forest Green.

Only seven of County's 20 league wins came away from Rodney Parade so manager Michael Flynn will be well aware of the importance of gaining a first-leg advantage at home.

Remarkably, Flynn's men finished fifth in the division despite the fact that their joint-top scorers Padraig Amond, Scott Twine and Matt Dolan each managed just six goals.

Their lofty league position owes much to a stingy defence, especially at home where they conceded just 0.74 goals per game, beating promoted Bolton, Crawley, Scunthorpe and champions Cheltenham to nil in the last six weeks of term.

The only goal Newport let in during their last six home games was scored by runners-up Cambridge and they look a tempting price for a first-leg win with a clean sheet.

Forest Green sealed their playoff spot with wins over Tranmere and Oldham in their last two games but they had failed to score in seven of their previous ten league matches.

That run included defeats to nil against Cambridge, Bolton and eighth-placed Salford and they may struggle to break down Newport's solid defence in the first leg.

Key stat

Newport conceded only 17 goals in 23 regular-season home games.

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