League One final-day analysis & best bets for promotion: Back Black Cats

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for the final day of the League One season and the League One playoffs.

Where to watch

Gillingham v Rotherham
Sky Sports Main Event, 12.30pm Saturday

Plymouth v MK Dons
Sky Sports Football, 12.30pm Saturday

Best bet

Sunderland to be promoted
1pt 100-30 Betfred

League One final-day Preview

League One is the first of England's top four divisions to sign off this weekend and it promises to be a thrilling final day.

Twelve fixtures, eight with something riding on them, and with any number of now-familiar, skewed last-day 90-minute prices for punters to mull over.

It's a Saturday lunchtime special for tier three devotees with drama galore at the top and the bottom.

Wigan, barring something absurd, are all but up, but not yet champions, Rotherham and MK Dons are guaranteed playoff spots but only one can go up automatically, and that means one of Sheffield Wednesday, Sunderland, Plymouth and Wycombe will miss out on the top six.

At the bottom, goal difference means AFC Wimbledon are pretty much doomed so it's one of Morecambe, Fleetwood or Gillingham escorting Crewe, Doncaster and the Dons into the basement.

And as if by magic we've not one, but two promotion-relegation head-to-heads with the Gills entertaining Rotherham and Morecambe taking on Sunderland. It really doesn't get any better.

At the top Wigan need a point at out-of-form Shrewsbury and should get that and more leaving this intriguing head-to-head between MK Dons and Rotherham to be settled once and for all.

It was Paul Warne's side's to lose but almost lose it they have courtesy of a run of three wins in 11 and now they may well need to win at a Gillingham side fighting to stay in the division. They are no kind of bet at 4-6 for that assignment or at 1-9 to be promoted, though the Millers will be relieved that Milton Keynes have a brute of their own to negotiate, at Plymouth, who could well need to win to cement their playoff berth.

Sheffield Wednesday are in the box seat to nail a playoff spot with a home game – but it's against Portsmouth, who will be devastated not to be in the shake-up themselves and are finishing the season like a train.

The side who look a decent bet for promotion are Sunderland. The Mackems may need to win at Morecambe but they are playing well and with a confidence which has usually deserted them by the time they have arrived at previous playoff bids.

They should get the job done at Morecambe and they'll be nothing like 10-3 to win the playoffs if they do wind up in the top six.

The outsiders looking in are Wycombe, who head for Burton believing they'll need to win, and the Brewers' 2-0 win over Rotherham last week followed by a 2-0 loss at Doncaster indicates Gareth Ainsworth's mob won't have a clue what to expect.

Just to add to the drama of this four-team tussle for three playoff spots, three of them have an identical goal difference. It couldn’t have been scripted any better.

At the bottom, the Gills – faced with that tough test against Rotherham – need to better what Fleetwood do at in-form Bolton, while Morecambe are just praying that errors below them will mean what they do against Sunderland will be irrelevant.

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