Kevin Pullein: Salford City could be pegged back by Crawley

Salford City are a club on the up, but whatever the score in the League Two game at Crawley Town they might not have quite as much of the attacking play as bet365 anticipate.

Back Crawley 0 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 2.05, equivalent to fractional odds of 21-20. If Crawley take most corners the bet will win, if both teams take the same number stakes will be returned, and if Salford take most corners the bet will lose.

Salford are in the Football League for the first time. Six former Manchester United players each own a ten per cent stake in the club – Ryan Giggs, Gary Neville, Phil Neville, Paul Scholes, Nicky Butt and David Beckham. Between them they know a lot about football and they also have a lot of money.

The other 40 per cent is owned by Peter Lim, a billionaire businessman who also owns Spanish La Liga Club Valencia.

With those owners Salford have risen in seven seasons from the Northern Premier League Division One North. Last Saturday they won their first game in League Two, beating Stevenage 2-0.

The result-related markets for the Broadfield Stadium game imply roughly a 31 per cent chance of a Crawley win, a 29 per cent chance of a draw and a 40 per cent chance of a Salford win. There is no obvious reason to think those percentages are wrong by much if at all.

What such odds anticipate is that the away team will attack more efficiently than the home team, not necessarily that they will spend longer attacking. And how long each team spend with the ball in the opposition’s half has an influence on how many corners they will gain.

Over the last two decades in Football League games with similar result expectations home teams took slightly more corners overall than away teams. Fair decimal odds about the home team 0 Asian handicap corners would typically have been 1.9. Odds of 1.9 imply nearly a 53 per cent chance of a payout if there is one, odds of 2.05 imply less than a 49 per cent chance of a payout if there is one.

Salford’s corners for and against in the National League last season were effectively what we should have anticipated from the number of goals they scored and conceded.

Crawley’s corners for and against in League Two since Gabriele Cioffi became manager early last season have also been consistent with goals for and against. Admittedly they have not performed quite as well on corners handicaps at home as we might have anticipated, but the most likely explanation for this small discrepancy is that it is simply random noise.

Recommendation
Crawley 0 Asian handicap corners
1pt 2.05 bet365

Thought for the week

Something to watch out for if you bet on bookings. Totals in matches tend to be higher than usual at the start of a season. Obviously this can be helpful if you bet high and unhelpful if you bet low.

In most bookings markets each yellow counts as ten points and each red as 25. The average total in Premier League games over the last 22 seasons – 1997-98 to 2018-19 – was 36 points.

It varied from month to month, though. In August it was 40, dropping to 39 in September and October, 37 in November and December then between 35 and 34 from January to May.

At the start of many seasons referees have new laws to implement or new guidelines to interpret, or both. It can take time for players to come to terms with the changes. They will have been told about them, but there can be a difference between hearing something in theory and seeing it in practice.

For this season there are new laws concerning penalties and handball, and there could be more punishments for both in the Premier League, which is introducing VAR. Higher than usual early-season bookings totals do not occur every season, but they are a feature of many seasons. And anyone who bets on bookings totals might like to be aware of the possibility of them.

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